Seven triangular, 1148 candidates in the running – including three without an opponent -, 15 ministers engaged or 62 duels between Nupes and the RN: what you need to know about the second round of the legislative elections this Sunday, eight weeks after the re-election of Emmanuel Macron as President of the Republic.
1148 candidates in the running
1,148 candidates will be running in the second round of legislative elections this Sunday, against 6,293 in the first round, more than 80% skimming. Of the remaining candidates, 655 are men (57%) for 493 women (43%).
Among the contenders, 370 were already elected in the previous legislature, while 70 other outgoing deputies bit the dust in the first round.
The candidates of the outgoing majority (LREM, Modem, Horizons and Agir) are the most numerous (415), ahead of the left alliance Nupes (380), not to mention three socialist dissidents who refused to join this coalition. As for the National Rally, it aligns 209 candidates in the second round and Les Républicains 71 (in addition to five UDIs and 14 DVDs). This means that, arithmetically, only the Macronists and the Melenchonists can claim an absolute majority in the Assembly this Sunday.
270 Ensemble-Nupes duels
In the second round, the most frequent duels will oppose a candidate from Ensemble! to a rival of the Nupes. According to figures from the Ministry of the Interior, the outgoing majority and the left alliance will face each other in just under half of the constituencies (270 out of 577).
Together! will face the RN in 108 other constituencies. Finally, the question of the dam on the far right will also arise in the 62 constituencies where Marine Le Pen’s party will face the Nupes led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon. There will also be 25 duels between the RN and Les Républicains, who will also face Nupes in 24 constituencies and Together in 18.
Seven triangular
There will be seven triangles in the second round, compared to only one five years ago. Despite this increase, they remain rare due to abstention, the candidate who comes third having to obtain a number of votes at least equal to 12.5% of registered voters. Four constituencies will pit a candidate from Ensemble!, from the left and from the RN: the 3rd from Dordogne, the 2nd from Lot-et-Garonne, the 2nd from Nièvre and the 2nd from Tarn.
In two constituencies of Hauts-de-Seine, the 2nd and 3rd, the triangular will oppose LR to Nupes and Together. Finally, in the 2nd of the Lot, there will be a dissident PS candidate against Nupes and Ensemble!.
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Four candidates forfeit
Four candidates qualified for the second round have finally decided to withdraw: this is the case of two dissident candidates from the left of Seine-Saint-Denis, who arrived behind the official candidate of Nupes, who withdrew. Same thing for Marie-Luce Penchard, ex-Minister of Overseas under Nicolas Sarkozy, supported by the presidential majority, who withdrew after having gathered less than 20% of the votes in the first round in Guadeloupe. Finally, in Lot-et-Garonne, a Nupes candidate who arrived third decided to withdraw her candidacy in favor of the candidate of the presidential majority who will face an RN.
Three candidates without opponent
Consequence of these abandonments: three candidates, all Nupes, find themselves alone in the running and are therefore guaranteed to win. They are Clémentine Autain (2nd from Seine-St-Denis), Soumya Bourouaha (4th from Seine-St-Denis) and Elie Califer (4th from Guadeloupe). Their victory is assured whatever their score this Sunday or the level of abstention in their constituency.
Five constituencies that do not vote
Five candidates were elected in the first round, four for Nupes and one for the outgoing presidential majority Together!. The four left-wing deputies who will not need to cross swords next Sunday are all based in Ile-de-France: these are the outgoing Insoumis from Seine-Saint-Denis, Alexis Corbière (7th district) and Paris , Danièle Obono (17th district), as well as two new LFI deputies in Paris, Sophia Chikirou (6th) and Sarah Legrain (16th).
For his part, Yannick Favennec-Bécot (64), ex-UDI passed to Horizons, managed to be re-elected for a 5th term (57.13%) in the 3rd constituency of Mayenne.
Nine majority candidates but not yet elected
Due to the low turnout, nine candidates who passed the 50% mark in the first round will still have to undergo a second round this Sunday because the number of votes obtained a week ago was less than 25% of the number registered voters. This is the case, for example, of Marine Le Pen in her constituency of Pas-de-Calais (11th) where she won with 53.96% of the vote. For the same reasons, the rebellious Manuel Bompard, who was running in the 4th constituency of the Bouches-du-Rhône of the outgoing Jean-Luc Mélenchon, has not yet certified his seat, although he has collected 56.04% voices.
Fifteen ministers involved
Élisabeth Borne, Damien Abad, Olivier Dussopt, Olivier Véran, Gérald Darmanin, Clément Beaune, Gabriel Attal, Amélie de Montchalin, Brigitte Bourguignon, Yaël Braun-Pivet, Marc Fesneau, Franck Riester, Justine Benin, Olivia Grégoire and Stanislas Guerini: no less of 15 ministers are engaged in the second round of the legislative elections, after having passed the obstacle of the first. All will have to win this Sunday if they want to stay in government because tradition now dictates that a minister beaten at the ballot box resigns. The last to have paid the price is Alain Juppé, in 2007, beaten in his constituency of Gironde. He only stayed a month as Minister of State, in charge of Ecology, in the government of François Fillon.