The Macronists would come first in number of seats, but without certainty of obtaining an absolute majority in the legislative elections, in the face of pressure from the left alliance Nupes, according to an Ipsos / Cevipof poll for The world released Wednesday. This survey, which is based on a sample of nearly 11,000 people, larger than other polls, projects 275 to 315 seats for the presidential majority Together!. The absolute majority is 289 deputies in the National Assembly.
The RN in difficulty
The macronists would obtain fifteen seats less than in the similar survey carried out by Ipsos three weeks ago, in view of these elections on June 12 and 19. The left Nupes alliance sealed around Jean-Luc Mélenchon (LFI, PS, EELV, PCF) is credited with 160 to 200 seats, ahead of LR (30 to 55 seats) and the RN (20 to 55 seats).
Pollster Brice Teinturier underlines the “low interest” of the French for this election, with expected abstention between 52% and 56% which could exceed the 2017 record (51.3%). “The gap between the youngest and the oldest is confirmed: 35% of those under 35 and 36% of 35-59 year olds say they are really interested (in the legislative elections). The switchover only occurs from the age of 60 years, with 55% interest. Even in this age group, this figure is not exceptional”, he insists.
A nationalized election?
Brice Teinturier also believes that this election is “nationalized”, with a “really low outgoing bonus” or which “when it plays, does not fundamentally change things”, according to this survey. “Finally, and contrary to popular belief, the political color of the Nupes candidate, whether LFI, PC, PS or EELV, hardly changes the voting intentions, the presence of an LFI rather than a PS does not significantly accentuate the rejection of part of the electorate”, he says.
“Everything is therefore happening as if this election were completely nationalized, with very little attention from the French for the local dimension of their candidates and their proposals”, concludes the Deputy Chief Executive Officer of Ipsos. Voting intentions do not constitute a forecast of the outcome of the vote. They give an indication of the balance of power and dynamics on the day of the survey.
This was carried out from June 3 to 6 with a sample of 10,826 people representative of the French population, registered on the electoral lists, aged 18 and over. The margin of error is between 0.3 and 0.9%.