PARIS (Reuters) – Emmanuel Macron seemed assured on Sunday evening of a majority in the National Assembly after the first round of legislative elections, but a fragile majority in the face of the show of force of the New Popular, Ecological and Social Union (Nupes), left-wing alliance led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
Ifop-Fiducial for TF1 and LCI predicts “Ensemble” – made up of the Renaissance, MoDem, Horizons and Agir parties in particular – between 275 and 310 seats. The range is between 260 and 295 seats for the Elabe Institute for BFM TV and between 255 and 295 according to Ipsos-Sopra Steria projections.
The absolute majority in the National Assembly is set at 289 seats.
According to Ifop, the Republicans would have between 40 and 60 seats and the National Rally between 5 and 25 seats.
“The presidential party in the first round is beaten and defeated,” said Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who did not represent himself in the Bouches-du-Rhône.
According to the leader of La France insoumise, Nupes will be present in the second round, next Sunday, “in more than 500 constituencies” out of the 577 at stake in a first round marked by an abstention of more than 50%, a record for the Fifth Republic.
“In view of this result, and the extraordinary opportunity it represents for our personal lives and for the destiny of the common homeland, I call on our people to surge next Sunday,” he said.
For Alexis Corbière, figure of LFI and candidate in Seine-Saint-Denis, Jean-Luc Mélenchon can still cause cohabitation. “Let’s not make the French believe that Jean-Luc Mélenchon cannot be Prime Minister,” he said on BFM TV.
BORNE CALLS FOR A “STRONG AND CLEAR” MAJORITY
Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne, qualified for the second round in the 6th constituency of Calvados against a candidate from Nupes, called on voters to give the executive “a strong and clear majority”, denouncing “an unprecedented confusion of the extremes “.
“We are the only political force capable of obtaining a majority in the National Assembly,” she said during a speech.
The majority clarified on Sunday evening not to give a “national instruction” in the event of duels in the second round between the RN and the Nupes. “It will be a local decision in the constituencies where the issue arises,” it said.
“Not a voice should go to the National Rally and everywhere we call for the candidates of the far right to beat,” Maud Bregeon, spokesperson for the Renaissance party, later declared on the set of BFM TV.
Representatives of the presidential camp called for “humility” and caution in the face of estimates.
“Let’s wait for the final results,” said government spokeswoman Olivia Grégoire, herself a candidate in Paris. “It seems that the presidential majority is present in many duels throughout the territory, which is rather encouraging,” she said on France 2.
“It’s a good apparent result, estimated, for Nupes. A little modesty. I don’t deny the results, but we don’t know exactly who is in the lead in the vote”, declared on BFM TV the minister delegate for l ‘Europe Clément Beaune, preceded by a Nupes candidate, Caroline Mecary, in the 7th district of Paris.
If he is not elected next Sunday, Clément Beaune will have to leave the government.
“It would be a big loss because he is a talented person who comes from the left, who can talk concretely about complex subjects like Europe,” a government source told Reuters.
Another personality in difficulty: the Minister of Ecological Transition Amélie de Montchalin, ten points behind in Essonne against the Nupes candidate Jérôme Guedj.
Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin, comfortably qualified for the second round in the North, invited to “listen to voters with great humility”. The Minister for Relations with Parliament Olivier Véran said on LCI to hear the “warning” of voters.
The composition of the National Assembly resulting from these elections will determine the possibility for the government to carry out the project on which the president was elected on April 24 with 58.5% of the vote.
Fifteen members of the government, including Elisabeth Borne, are candidates for these legislative elections.
RN IN PROGRESS
Emmanuel Macron’s party, La République en Marche, had obtained an absolute majority in 2017, which it then lost in May 2020 after several defections.
The National Rally is “up nearly seven points” compared to the 2017 election, according to Marine Le Pen, who came well ahead in the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais but will have to go through a second round.
“The second round offers us the possibility of sending a very important group of patriotic deputies to the National Assembly”, said the finalist of the presidential elections of 2017 and 2022.
“Next Sunday, it is important not to let Emmanuel Macron have a majority that he will abuse,” said Marine Le Pen.
“I call on voters not to choose between the destroyers from above and the destroyers from below. (…) France is neither a trading room nor a Zad,” she said. said.
According to partial results, the former Minister of National Education Jean-Michel Blanquer is eliminated in the Loiret, as well as the former presidential candidate and leader of “Reconquest” Eric Zemmour in the Var.
(Elizabeth Pineau, Tassilo Hummel, Bertrand Boucey, Sophie Louet)