Un evening with the air of revenge… The press had described a sluggish campaign, an “absent” Marine Le Pen, as if drowned under the Mélenchon wave? On the evening of the first round of the legislative elections, the party with the flame was delighted with a new progression, in the wake of the 41.46% achieved in the second round of the presidential election: by bringing together nearly 19% of the votes in the first round of the legislative elections. , the RN certainly remains in third place, behind the outgoing majority and the Nupes, but progresses by six points compared to its score of 2017 (13.2%). The record abstention that threatened to mow down the RN candidates hit some candidates even harder: “The entire media world is polarized on Nupes and Together, but they only accumulate half of the votes”, tackles Gilles Pennelle, chief leader of the party in Brittany and himself eliminated in Ille-et-Vilaine.
“In a context of abstention, we still achieve considerable scores. Hence the confidence displayed by Marine Le Pen on Sunday evening when she spoke from her stronghold of Pas-de-Calais, where she came out on top with 53.96% of the vote. “The Nupes member parties have not improved their score compared to 2017, they have lost votes compared to the presidential election… There is no Nupes dynamic. On the other hand, the RN dynamic exists, ”convinces one of his advisers. The RN has 4.2 million votes, more than 1.1 million more than in 2017. “Do the pollsters predict us between 10 and 30 seats? I’m sure we’ll be beyond, ”wants to believe Gilles Pennelle.
The RN qualified in more than 200 constituencies
In detail, the RN is strengthening its positions in its main strongholds. He comes first in all the constituencies of Vaucluse, Pyrénées-Orientales, Pas-de-Calais… And he will be present in the second round in more than 200 constituencies – he had only been in 120 in 2017.
Several figures are in a favorable position. The RN comes first in the eight constituencies it won in 2017. In the 4e de la Somme, the deputy director of the campaign Jean-Philippe Tanguy is positioned in the lead, like Caroline Parmentier, loyal press officer of the candidate, in the 9e Pas-de-Calais (30.8%). In the 11e Gironde constituency, RN candidate Edwige Diaz is ahead, with nearly 40% of the vote, outgoing MP Véronique Hammerer (Together). In the 4e constituency of the Var, the elimination of Éric Zemmour places his competitor from the RN, Philippe Lottiaux, in a position of strength…
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Remains an unknown: how will voters react in the event of a duel? “Everywhere, the voices of the LRs were transferred to us. It is striking”, judges a party executive, waving the results of a “symbolic” constituency, that of Loiret, where the former Minister of Education Jean-Michel Blanquer presented himself – curtly eliminated in the first round. “In 2017, this historically right-wing constituency placed an LR and an LREM in the lead. This time they have been swept away and we will have an RN duel against Nupes. »
Local “standardization”
The two extremes will be opposed in the second round in several dozen duels, the outcome of which is difficult to predict. Marine Le Pen, whose campaign has intentionally remained extremely discreet, hopes that her candidates will be able to capitalize on her “normalization”. “France is neither a trading room nor a ZAD,” she said on Sunday evening. “Our first-round campaign was not arrogant, it was designed so as not to unleash anger, precisely in anticipation of these second-round duels,” says his political adviser Philippe Olivier. “La Nupes, with its outrageousness, risks unleashing a barrage of fire…” The challenge for the RN candidates will be to appear as a credible, “reasonable” opposition. “Right-wing voters are already largely convinced of this”, believes Franck Allisio, who will face, in the 12e constituency of Bouches-du-Rhône, the LR Éric Diard. “He is a macronized LR, the very type of person who cannot embody the opposition. »
To really embody it, the RN is counting on its future group in the Assembly (it needs 15 deputies for this), and on the financial breath that its results already allow it: its score on Sunday is the assurance of seeing its income. increase by more than one and a half million euros each year, with each vote bringing the parties 1.64 euros. A welcome consolation for a party stunned, whatever it may say, by the successful coup by Jean-Luc Mélenchon – who, without additional votes but thanks to the game of alliance, will have considerably reinforced his influence in Parliament – and still in debt.