LIVE – Türkiye: towards an unprecedented second round for the presidential election?


Rémi Trieau, Caroline Baudry with AFP / Photo credit: BURAK KARA / GETTY IMAGES EUROPE / GETTY IMAGES VIA AFP
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11:09 p.m., May 14, 2023

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Polling stations in Turkey closed their doors late Sunday afternoon after seeing a huge crowd of voters marching past, who had come to choose between outgoing President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in power for 20 years, and his social-political rival. Democrat, Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Until the last minute – 5:00 p.m. (2:00 p.m. GMT) – the ballot boxes continued to fill with large mustard green envelopes deposited since 8:00 a.m. by voters who sometimes waited several hours in front of schools transformed into polling stations. At stake: the choice of the thirteenth president of the Turkish Republic, who is celebrating his first century, and the future of the head of state who hopes to stay in power against his adversary.

The winner must obtain a majority of 50% of the votes plus one, under penalty of a second round on May 28 – the symbolic anniversary date of the greatest popular protest movement which shook power in 2003. The 64 million voters had to also choose the 600 deputies who will sit in the unicameral parliament in Ankara. In 2018, during the last presidential election, the head of state won in the first round with more than 52.5% of the vote. A waiver would already be a setback for him.

Turkey towards an unprecedented second round for the presidential election

An unprecedented second round seems to be looming on Sunday evening in Turkey, suspended on the results of the counting of the presidential election, which gives President Recep Tayyip Erdogan neck and neck with his opponent Kemal Kiliçdaroglu. The 69-year-old head of state, in power for 20 years, lost in the evening the lead credited to him by the official media over his social-democratic rival, falling below the 50% mark, according to the state agency Anadolu .

Even if these figures are still likely to evolve, for the third man in this election, Sinon Ogan, dissident of the nationalist party MHP credited with around 5% of the vote, these results open the way to a second round on May 28. This would be a first for the Turkish Republic, centenary this year. “We are going to have 15 difficult days ahead of us in the event of a second round,” he warned, refusing to say which candidate he would support.

Erdogan drops below 50% on nearly 90% of ballots

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, given the lead by the official media early Sunday evening, fell below 50% after counting almost all of the ballots, according to the state agency Anadolu. At 11:00 p.m. (8:00 p.m. GMT), the Head of State won 49.94% of the votes out of nearly 90% of the ballots counted, according to Anadolu, opening the prospect of a second round on May 28.

Around 7:30 p.m., more than two hours after the closing of the polling stations which saw Turkish voters marching in droves, Erdogan was credited with a comfortable lead by the Anadolu agency: 54.3% of the vote against 39.8% for his opponent Kemal Kilicdaroglu. But this lead has melted over the hours.

Battle of numbers between Erdogan and Kemal Kiliçdaroglu

A battle of figures began Sunday evening in Turkey around the first counting of the vote for the presidential election. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is credited with more than 50% of the ballots after counting more than 40% of the ballots, according to the official Anadolu agency. A result immediately contested by his opponent for the presidency, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, boss of the CHP. “We are in the lead,” he said on Twitter. Anadolu granted 52.4% of the votes to the Head of State after the counting of 43.8% of the ballots. The third candidate Sinan Ogan, a dissident from the nationalist MHP party, would be around 5% of the vote.

The CHP mayor of Istanbul Ekrem Imamoglu, speaking at the party headquarters in Ankara and specifying that he was speaking “on behalf of Kemal Kiliçdaroglu”, called on citizens “to disregard the figures given by Anadolu”. “We do not believe Anadolu”, he said, news agency according to him “under artificial respirator since 2019” and which “has lost all respectability”. An allusion to the tutelage of power over the main major Turkish media.

The channel close to the CHP Halk TV broadcast figures on Sunday evening giving Kemal Kiliçdaroglu a slight lead, 47.71% against 46.5% for Erdogan. “We will not let our fellow citizens be fooled,” assured Ekrem Imamoglu, who had seen his election for mayor of Istanbul invalidated in 2019, before being confirmed with a bang at the polls three months later.

Erdogan leads the presidential election on 25% of ballots counted

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is given the lead in the presidential election on Sunday evening after the counting of 25% of the ballots, according to official media. Erdogan, in power for twenty years, obtained 54.3% of the vote at this stage against 39.8% for his opponent Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, according to still very provisional results reported by the state agency Anadolu.

No prediction

Erdogan has promised to respect the verdict of the polls, watched by hundreds of thousands of scrutineers from both sides and from which he has always drawn his legitimacy. The electoral commission (YSK), kept under close surveillance by the police who block all traffic of cars and pedestrians, has not reported any incident at this stage. Arrived at midday in his polling station in Üsküdar, a conservative district on the Asian side of Istanbul, Erdogan wished “a future profitable to the country and to Turkish democracy”, underlining “the enthusiasm of the voters” in particularly in the areas affected by the February 6 earthquake which killed at least 50,000 people.

Appeared the tired features, he did not make the slightest prediction on the results, expected in the evening, and which he will wait for from Ankara, just like Kemal Kiliçdaroglu. Shortly before, the latter had been the first of the two to cast his ballot in Ankara: “We missed democracy,” said the social democrat, all smiles. “You will see, spring will return to this country, God willing, and it will last forever,” he added, using one of his campaign slogans.

“Do not divide Turkey”

Voters were polarized between Islamo-conservative President Erdogan, 69, and Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, 74, head of the CHP, the secular party of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, founder of modern Turkey. “What matters is not to divide Turkey,” said Recep Turktan, 67, while waiting outside his office in Üsküdar. A third candidate, Sinan Ogan, is credited with a few points.

“The economy is not the priority, we must start with the base: restore human rights and democracy, regain our dignity”, judge Hande Tekay, 55, in the upscale district of Sisli, in Istanbul. “To put it simply, we want the French revolution: Equality, freedom, fraternity, because these last twenty years, all that has disappeared,” adds Ulvi Aminci, 58, blue jeans and tattoo on his hand. “I say ‘continue’ with Erdogan”, implores on the contrary Nurcan Soyer, scarf on the head, in front of the polling station of Erdogan.

In the battered city of Antakya, the former Antioch (south) ruined by the earthquake, Mehmet Topaloglu arrived among the first: “We need change, that’s enough”. The wounds remain acute three months after the tragedy: “Even before the earthquake my vote was defined, but with the earthquake it was confirmed”, loose Aylin Karakas, 23 years old.

“Turkish Spring”

Kemal Kiliçdaroglu leads a united front of six parties from the nationalist right to the liberal centre-left. He also received the support of the pro-Kurdish HDP party, the third political force in the country. Erdogan is appearing this time before a country worn down by an economic crisis, with a currency devalued by half in two years and inflation that exceeded 85% in the fall. Facing him, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu played the appeasement card, promising the restoration of the rule of law and respect for institutions, battered over the past ten years by Erdogan’s autocratic drift.

For political scientist Ahmet Insel, in exile in Paris, “Erdogan’s defeat would show that we can get out of a well-established autocracy through the ballot box.” A form of “Turkish spring” which will be closely scrutinized abroad. Because Turkey, a member of NATO, enjoys a unique position between Europe and the Middle East, and is a major diplomatic player.





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