We are rubbing our hands on South Korean, Chinese and Japanese shipyards: orders for ships carrying liquefied natural gas (LNG) have poured in, in 2022, at an unprecedented rate. They reached the number of 163 tankers, indicates the firm Refinitiv, more than a doubling compared to 2021, already flourishing. A total of more than 200 LNG carriers are under construction in dry docks across Asia, and demand is such that charter rates can approach $500,000 (465,000 euros) per day, according to the Sea Freight Exchange, Baltic Exchange.
South Korean shipyards (Daewoo Shipbuilding, Samsung Heavy Industries, Hyundai Heavy Industries, etc.), which represent 70% of the world market, have logically won two-thirds of orders in 2022. They are now running at full capacity and are sold out for three years. Transfer to Chinese shipyards, where prices are lower, is made difficult by their own congestion. Added to this are the price of steel, which rose sharply between April 2021 and the spring of 2022, and the shortages of skilled labor, in a sector where technological expertise is important. All of this raised the average cost of ships from $200 million to $250 million.
Their construction lasting three to four years, they will not be delivered before 2026, to meet a new supply of LNG from the United States, Australia and Qatar, the three largest producers in the world. But the trend is there, which shows that gas is beginning to dethrone king oil, including at sea: in 2025, maritime experts estimate that the fleet of LNG carriers could be larger than that of “very large crude carriers”, these approximately 830 supertankers that transport crude.
China, Japan and South Korea, leading consumers
It is first of all the new development projects for the colossal Qatari reserves of the North Field, in the Arabo-Persian Gulf, which explain this need for LNG carriers, the largest of which can transport up to 270,000 cubic meters (m3) of liquefied gas at −163°C. The emirate must, in fact, go from a production of 77 million tonnes of LNG to 127 million in 2027. An increase which will require the use of 150 additional ships, for a world fleet which already has 641, according to the International Gas Union.
On the demand side, growth is undeniable in Asia, where China, Japan and South Korea are the main consumers, while India is planning the construction of a good ten import terminals. In Europe, consumption has increased sharply since the drying up of Russian supplies linked to the war in Ukraine, which also explains the growing need for LNG carriers. The Twenty-Seven will have to replace the 155 billion cubic meters of Russian methane (40% of their consumption), until now transported by the gas pipelines, the pipelines starting from Norway and Algeria not being able to compensate for such a loss.
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