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It was expected that the Turkish opposition would be able to hold the large cities of Ankara and Izmir, but according to the preliminary results, they gained additional cities. And she was able to defend Istanbul, the economic metropolis where President Erdogan once began his own political career. The president had thrown all his political prestige and a lot of money into the election campaign in an attempt to recapture the symbolic town hall for the government camp. The fact that revenge on the Bosporus was not achieved is the bitterest defeat of this election day for the once so successful president.
Ekrem Imamoglu won again, although the opposition entered these local elections divided, caught in settling scores and factions since the lost parliamentary and presidential elections last May. Different candidates competed with each other. But Turkish voters obviously trusted the opposition more than they trusted themselves.
The economic crisis played into the opposition’s hands
Three factors helped Erdogan’s opponents: the economic crisis in Turkey continues, inflation is eating away purchasing power, and the president’s camp received the reward for this. A small Islamist party also turned its back on Erdogan before the elections, which cost the government votes. In many places, Erdogan’s candidates were also unconvincing. In Istanbul, the President sent a colorless technocrat into the race. The incumbent hardly paid any attention to him; instead, Imamoglu directly attacked the president. Imamoglu’s core message is that he is the choice for everyone in Turkey who hopes for an alternative to Erdogan.
The opposition’s hope presents itself as a Kemalist, but without the elitist posturing that scares many in the country away from the former elite party. He clearly places himself in the secular party tradition and yet has no reservations about religion and tradition. In doing so, he cleverly undermines Erdogan’s favorite claim that the Turkish opposition is morally corrupt and blinded by the West.
Imamoglu is establishing himself as Erdogan’s most important opponent
The road to the next presidential election is still long, and after Imamoglu’s first victory in Istanbul five years ago, the government camp activated the judiciary in an attempt to slow him down. The fact that he knew how to defend the town hall against the powerful state apparatus and internal resistance strengthens him in his role as Erdogan’s most important opponent. He is the big winner of these local elections, which will give the Turkish opposition back confidence in itself.