AChina only describes very few countries as “all-weather friends”. Pakistan, Zambia and, more recently, Belarus. Its ruler Alexandr Lukashenko was expected in Beijing on Tuesday for a two-day state visit. Head of state and party leader Xi Jinping wants to talk to him, among other things, about China’s twelve-point paper “for a political solution to the Ukraine crisis”. In an interview with the Xinhua news agency, Lukashenko praised the paper to the skies. It is an “example of China’s peaceful foreign policy” and a “new step that will have a broad impact around the world.”
Chinese state media have hinted that the two leaders in Beijing may jointly express their opposition to, or the threat of, using nuclear weapons. During the visit of Chancellor Olaf Scholz in November, Xi learned that these words, which cost him little, brought him approval in the West. The visit of the Belarusian ruler, who is making his country available as a deployment area for the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, is viewed with suspicion in the West. China’s peace rhetoric has also been countered by continued warnings from Washington that China is considering supplying arms and ammunition to Russia.
Lukashenko could be an interesting discussion partner for the Chinese head of state simply because of his insights into Russian warfare, especially before Xi’s planned visit to Moscow in the coming weeks. The Belarusian ruler is likely to arrive with the hope of reviving economic relations with China. They had recently fallen far short of Minsk expectations.
“Smart, wise, creative and modern person”
Lukashenko had hoped China could help cushion the impact of sanctions imposed by the EU and the United States following the rigged 2020 presidential election, the crackdown on the opposition and the country’s role in Russia’s incursion into Ukraine. But the sanctions also prompted China to severely restrict its investments in Belarus in order not to be subject to punitive measures itself. The war has also reduced Belarus’ importance as a transit country for rail transport between China and the EU. In an interview with Xinhua, Lukashenko aggressively promoted the Great Stone Industrial Park, a prestige project that has stalled.
China is trying to make up for the lack of economic support with symbolic gestures. At the most recent meeting of the two rulers in Samarkand in September 2022, it upgraded relations with Belarus to a “comprehensive strategic all-weather partnership” and spoke of a “historic breakthrough”. Lukashenko probably hopes that he will reach his goal in Beijing with adulation. Xi is a “very smart, wise, creative and modern person,” he told Xinhua. No problem in the world can be solved without China.
Politically, it is easy for both autocrats to back each other up. Xi is said to have congratulated Lukashenko in 2020 as the first foreign head of state on his alleged electoral success. Minsk, in turn, regularly votes for China in UN bodies, especially in the UN Human Rights Council. Both countries also maintain close military ties. According to a media analysis by the Friedrich-Ebert-Foundation, this cooperation has hardly been talked about in public since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.