Macron and Le Pen woo the left

After the election is before the election – this applies in particular to the two weeks that separate the first and second ballots for the presidency in France. During this time, the finalists must win over as many voters as possible from the losing candidates. At the moment, polls put the incumbent Emmanuel Macron at a slight advantage. He will be around for the runoff on April 24th 54 percent of the votes predicted.

Hunt for the voters of Mélenchon

But although this looks like a déjà vu from 2017, the starting point is different this time. It is less comfortable, especially for Emmanuel Macron. On Sunday evening, six of the ten eliminated candidates more or less clearly called for the incumbent to be elected in two weeks in order to prevent a right-wing extremist president. But this so-called front républicain is less robust than it was five years ago.

This is mainly due to the desolate results of the former people’s parties. Five years ago, the Socialists were only able to inspire 6.3 percent of voters, this time it was not even 2 percent. This time the collapse was even more violent among the conservative Républicains. Her candidate Valérie Pécresse received just under a quarter of the votes that her predecessor François Fillon had achieved five years ago. And this despite the fact that Fillon had been weakened by the scandal surrounding his wife’s bogus job.

Socialists, Greens and Conservatives, who most clearly demonstrated their support for Macron on Sunday, accumulated just under 11 percent of the votes cast in the first round.

The largest reservoir of voters is in the supporters of third-placed Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The left-wing foreign politician achieved the best result in his history and missed out on the runoff by just 1.2 percentage points. But the preferences of his voters with regard to the runoff are anything but clear. According to a survey by the Ipsos / Sopra Steria institute on election night 34 percent of them can imagine voting for Macron in the second round, 30 percent tend towards Le Pen and another 36 percent abstain.

In the course of this election campaign, Mélenchon had emerged as the only option for a leftist victory. His electoral base, traditionally left-wing populist, has become more heterogeneous as a result. Anyone who came from the Socialists or the Greens can perhaps imagine voting for Macron now. Ardent Mélenchon supporters are likely to tend to abstain – as did around a quarter of French people on Sunday. Because even if they don’t want a right-wing extremist president, their hatred of the “neoliberal” incumbent is now too great for them to vote for him.

Marine Le Pen can probably score particularly well with a section of the working class among Mélenchon’s supporters who are concerned about their salaries and the rising cost of living and who are critical of globalization and Europe. Probably also because he recognized these tendencies, Mélenchon said more than once on Sunday evening that Marine Le Pen should not be voted for. Five years ago he had waited five days before finally saying he would not vote for Le Pen.

difficult terrain

In 2017, before the second round of voting, Macron positioned himself primarily as a liberal, cosmopolitan alternative to Marine Le Pen’s Eurosceptic course, which was accompanied by xenophobic tones. In his first request to speak on Sunday evening, the President again played on this keyboard. But in view of the new situation, the election campaign for the next two weeks will revolve around social issues and the cost of living.

Marine Le Pen has a lead over Macron. She has been touring the country for months and, probably also because the topic was omnipresent in her encounters, focused on the topic of purchasing power early on. She now promises a permanent reduction in VAT on gas, petrol and electricity. For example, she wants to waive income tax for all citizens under 30, make it possible to retire from the age of 60 and reduce inheritance tax for broad sections of the population.

The President and his government have already generously covered the coffers to cushion the effects of the pandemic and now also the Ukraine conflict; for example through a 100 billion euro investment program or through the temporary capping of electricity and gas prices. That’s why Macron is increasingly asking how far he can and wants to go without betraying his principles. On the one hand, he promises to reduce France’s skyrocketing debt in the medium term, also for his second term. For example, he is counting on raising the retirement age. On the other hand, Macron’s program is actually based on the basic assumption that prosperity should grow through more work and not through state aid.

Emmanuel Macron, who has previously campaigned on the back burner, has some catching up to do with Le Pen when it comes to direct contact with the French. He obviously doesn’t want to waste any time. He spends Monday and Tuesday in north-eastern France, an area where Marine Le Pen has a strong electoral base.

Meanwhile, his competitor is concentrating primarily on media appearances in the capital. She, too, has to do some convincing in the next ten days. Le Pen received the recommendation of her competitor Éric Zemmour and the sovereign Nicolas Dupont-Aignan on Sunday. This results in a potential voter of around 9 percent – theoretically not enough to trump Emmanuel Macron. Particular attention will be paid to their participation in the televised debate between the two finalists. It is scheduled for April 20th. Five years ago, Le Pen’s performance was a disaster because, among other things, she mixed up facts and made outrageous claims that the media later exposed as false. Some say that cost her the victory back then.