France and Germany are publicly arguing about how far support for Ukraine should go. Emmanuel Macron has mused aloud about deploying Western ground troops in Ukraine. Which immediately earned him a reprimand from Olaf Scholz. How broken is the relationship between Berlin and Paris? And is Vladimir Putin the third party happy? Ronja Kempin from the Science and Politics Foundation in Berlin classifies.
SRF News: How would you describe the relationship between France and Germany?
Ronja Kempin: The relationship between the two is tense, very difficult – and there is a lack of trust.
Why is there a lack of trust?
The two states have very different basic philosophies in foreign and security policy. These are well known – but have come to the fore again since the beginning of the war, particularly characterized by Germany’s close ties to the USA and NATO. France is once again of the opinion that the whole thing can be solved in a European manner. Both Olaf Scholz and Emmanuel Macron are still navigating very difficult domestic political waters.
I think what bothers the Chancellor is that the French always make nice speeches, but in the end there is very little substance. His patience is now slowly running out.
In Germany we have the most divided traffic light coalition. Political decisions – including those of the Chancellor – are repeatedly openly questioned. In France, Emmanuel Macron is afraid of being paraded by Marine Le Pen in the European elections – he urgently needs a political success. Another problem: The personal relationship between the two does not seem to be intact. Many observers say that the German Chancellor is looking more towards Central Eastern Europe – France no longer has the same importance for him as it did under Angela Merkel. And the French are sometimes very sniffy about it.
Why is Olaf Scholz so undiplomatically distancing himself from Macron on the Ukraine issue – and simply shutting down the debate about European soldiers in Ukraine?
Olaf Scholz is probably still waiting for the USA to be able to move politically, for President Biden to regain a certain amount of freedom. We have seen this in all major military decisions; Germany has always waited to act in concert with Washington. We saw this with the Leopard decision – I think we’ll see it again with Taurus.
Legend:
Olaf Scholz on March 2nd, 2024 at the party congress of the European Social Democrats in Rome.
Keystone/AP Photo/Alessandra Tarantino)
The head of the Russian state broadcaster RT, Margarita Simonyan, published an audio recording of a conversation lasting around 30 minutes that may have been intercepted on Friday. In it, senior officers of the German Air Force can presumably be heard discussing the theoretical possibilities of using German Taurus cruise missiles by Ukraine. It is said that it was also discussed whether the cruise missiles could destroy the bridge built by Russia to the annexed Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea.
Ronja Kempin does not believe in a coincidence: “Vladimir Putin never misses an opportunity to weaken his Western opponents. He sees that the Chancellor is being put under extreme pressure from within his own government in terms of domestic policy. And it is no coincidence that such a leak has now seen the light of day. It increases the pressure on Germany and the Chancellor and shows how volatile the situation in Germany is at the moment in terms of domestic politics.
Olaf Scholz has so far refused to deliver Taurus cruise missiles, citing the risk of Germany becoming involved in the war. After the recording was published, Scholz promised quick clarification. On the sidelines of a visit to the Vatican on Saturday, he spoke of a “very serious matter”.
I think what bothers the Chancellor is that you can see that the French always make nice speeches, but in the end there is very little substance. His patience is now slowly running out.
Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin is certainly the one popping the champagne corks at the moment
The tense relationship between the two largest EU countries shows that there is no unconditional support for Ukraine. How does this go down with Putin?
Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin is certainly the one popping the champagne corks at the moment. He never misses an opportunity to take advantage of the weakness shown by the European states. And when the two most important partners in Europe argue so loudly on the open stage, then of course it inevitably plays into his hands.
The interview was conducted by Ivan Lieberherr.