Main battle tanks for Ukraine: The “don’t go it alone” argument is crumbling

Battle tanks for Ukraine
The “don’t go it alone” argument is crumbling

By Marc Dimpfel

Ukraine has been demanding German “Leopard” tanks for months, and the federal government has blocked them. Germany should not go it alone, they say. In fact, the alliance partners are not supplying any battle tanks either, but the argument is becoming more and more pretentious.

It’s a single sentence that eclipses Germany’s line of supplying main battle tanks to Ukraine. The US Embassy in Berlin wrote on Tuesday on twitterone appreciates the German support for the Ukraine – and concludes as follows: “Ultimately, the decision on the type of aid lies with each country itself.”

The federal government emphasizes that the USA would not pressure Germany into anything. The tweet is nevertheless to be understood as a clear signal in the direction of Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who is increasingly isolated with his wait-and-see attitude. Apparently Germany itself is concerned about Germany going it alone, as Scholz mantra-like justifies his rejection. The most important ally, the USA, does not seem to have any objections. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also appealed to Germany to make main battle tanks available to Ukraine. “If they say they need battle tanks, then we should take it seriously and deliver it to them,” von der Leyen told Bild TV.

So the “don’t go it alone” argument isn’t particularly valid, but it’s not wrong at its core either. Other Western countries are also reluctant to supply factory tanks. Superficially, Ukraine’s wishes revolve around combat vehicles “Made in Germany”. During his visit to Scholz, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Schmyhal expressly urged the provision of “Leopard” 2 main battle tanks. What Schmyhal also made clear in Berlin: “We expect the USA to deliver their ‘Abrams’ tanks to us.”

Is the US changing course?

The United States, by far Ukraine’s largest military supporter, has so far rejected this. Main argument: The American model “M1 Abrams” would have significantly less use for the Ukrainian army than the German “Leopard” counterpart. “Because the ‘Leopard’ is fueled with diesel, the ‘M1 Abrams’ main battle tank with kerosene, and it is also more complex to maintain,” military expert Georg Löfflmann told the “Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland”. In view of the success of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, a rethink may be taking place in Washington: A report by the “Sueddeutsche Zeitung” According to reports, the US government is suddenly considering the delivery of Western-style main battle tanks.

The European military powers France and Great Britain are also keeping a low profile on the tank issue. Especially since the French “Leclerc” is considered rather unsuitable for the Ukraine – in contrast to the “Leopard”. “The ‘Leopard’-2 is the only main battle tank that can be delivered quickly to Ukraine because, unlike the French ‘Leclerc’, it is still produced as is, complete with engines, transmissions and spare parts, so you can make up for losses can,” said military expert Gustav Gressel in the “Tagesspiegel”. At the same time, stocks of the “Leclerc” in France and those of the “Challenger 2” in Great Britain are limited, with each country only having around 200 of their tanks in operation.

In Germany there is the quite privileged situation of having a considerable number of decommissioned tanks in reserve. The armaments manufacturer Rheinmetall has made 16 “Marder” from old Bundeswehr stocks fit for combat again. If necessary, 88 “Leopard”-1 and more “Leopard”-2 could be modernized and delivered to Ukraine. But the export license from Berlin is missing. An offer from Spain to supply old “Leopard”-2 tanks was also blocked. The tanks were too ailing, it was said.

Expert suggests European way

Even if the federal government sticks to its teamwork premise, delivery of the “Leopard”-2 would be quite possible in the medium term, says expert Gressel ntv.de. Because this is not only found in the Bundeswehr, but also in the armies of twelve other European countries. There are more than 2000 pieces in total. “If each of the 13 countries only gives up a small number of tanks, that would already give you a critical mass,” he argues.

In view of the “decisive phase” in which Ukraine finds itself, Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock wants to push international talks about the delivery of battle tanks. This is not a decision “that should be delayed for a long time,” she told the “Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung”. Scholz, who is under increasing pressure in the coalition, strengthens her back. “It is the attitude of the entire federal government that Germany will not go it alone.”

Worry about escalation

For Gressel, behind the chancellor’s hesitation there is less an agreement reached among military powers than concerns about resistance in his own party. “It is not NATO agreements that are preventing the chancellor, but inner-party sensitivities, as expressed by people like Kevin Kühnert or Ralf Stegner.” Kühnert, for example, fears that Germany could be drawn into the war by supplying battle tanks. The escalation argument has been around for as long as the Ukraine war itself and has so far always proved to be obsolete, for example in the case of the Panzerhaubitze 2000, whose striking power is in no way inferior to that of a tank.

The German colonel a. However, according to D. Wolfgang Richter, the supply of main battle tanks would have a new quality. If larger quantities of German battle tanks, with a German signature, were to drive the Russians across the borders, “then there would also be concerns that Germany would come into focus,” he says in an ntv interview. The federal government wants to prevent escalations that might later become uncontrollable. “Perhaps it won’t have to be a red line in the long run, that depends on the course of the war, but Germany won’t go it alone,” said Richter.

When a red line is considered to be crossed is entirely at the discretion of the Kremlin. In any case, the previous deliveries of heavy weapons have not resulted in a far-reaching military escalation. With all due caution, one thing is clear: Ukraine cannot survive without massive support. That is why it will not remain silent when it comes to the demand for Western battle tanks. Germany still owes the attacked country a clear answer.


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