The coalition agreement between the SPD, FDP and the Greens promises a lot. From an economic point of view, some projects are desirable and good. But the funding remains open. Hopefully the expected fresh wind will not mutate into a mild breeze.
No, what the traffic light tips have put into their joint coalition agreement is not that bad. On the contrary. It is true that such papers are always celebrated to show their own voters how clever they have negotiated and how they have asserted themselves. But many of the promises sound promising on the balance sheet – also from an economic point of view. And it is hardly shocking that Robert Habeck, a Green man, is taking over an economics ministry that has been upgraded to include climate protection. Habeck can only win. CDU predecessor Peter Altmaier was considered toothless by many entrepreneurs. Much promised, little kept – frustrating for many.
It is an all-round feel-good program that the coalitionists have put forward – a 178-page red-green government program with FDP handwriting. There is something for everyone: The economy should become more climate-friendly and the country more digital. It should be possible to set up a company within 24 hours. Electricity customers should be relieved. There is a heating cost subsidy – which also benefits companies because the support promises additional purchasing power. In the case of taxes, all too serious changes were avoided – as was foreseeable in the election campaign. The liberals acted as regulators.
The wish list for how the three parties want to lift Germany back to the top of the world economically leaves little to be desired. One aspect, perhaps the most important, is missing: Who will pay for the ambitious project? Where does the money come from? A convincing proposal for the financing of the lavish and courageous ventures is missing.
Corona wave piles up
And the list of projects is long: around 15 million electric cars are to be registered by 2030. The funding is likely to devour billions. The expected compensation for the early coal exit as well. And how to achieve and finance the share of renewable energies in the electricity mix to 80 percent within a few years: open. Even with the pension, there shouldn’t be too big changes. After all, the “share pension” was promised.
The financing of the many projects becomes all the more crucial, the larger the current corona wave becomes. The planned decarbonization of the economy alone will devour billions if companies and consumers are not to shoulder this alone. But if the Covid infection numbers continue to skyrocket, as is currently the case, then that also puts pressure on the long economic recovery. At least regional lockdowns, as politicians may then call them, will slow the economy down. Expected tax revenues, with which one would like to pay for the promised renovation, collapse.
It is all the more remarkable that the three future governing parties want to hold on to the debt brake. If tax revenue does not increase noticeably and shadow budgets are to be avoided, that is hardly possible.