Map of the situation near Kherson
Ukrainians advance on the Dnipro
By Martin Morcinek
10/05/2022, 3:05 p.m
In southern Ukraine, Putin’s invading army is threatened with the next military debacle: near Cherson, the Russian lines are shaking, and the Ukrainians are expanding the recent front breakthroughs. Details from Kyiv allow a new perspective on the course of the front.
The Russian military has come under massive pressure on the front near Cherson in south-western Ukraine: Ukrainian units are advancing on a broad line, the Russian forces are forced to retreat towards the city of Cherson.
After the fall of Izyum, Kupyansk and Lyman in the east of the country, the Kremlin’s troops now find themselves confronted with an increasingly difficult situation on the western bank of the Dnipro. In the Cherson region, Russian units have been fighting with their backs to the Dnipro for weeks. The Russian supply routes across the mighty river are largely cut off. Chances for quick reinforcements are slim.
“The Ukrainian army is advancing fairly quickly and powerfully in the current defense operation in the south of our country,” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his speech on the evening of October 4. Deviating from the previous practice of secrecy, he listed a whole series of settlements that had recently been liberated, including strategically important towns such as Davydiv Brid on the Inhulets River, the two neighboring villages of Mala and Welyka Oleksandrivka, and the town of Solota Balka on the west Dnipro shore.
This officially confirms what Western observers have been suspecting for days: after weeks of preparation, the Ukrainians have apparently succeeded in breaking through the Russian front lines in the Cherson region and in putting the Russian units to flight. The Ukrainians’ Cherson offensive, which was widely announced at the end of August, is thus gaining momentum. Russia must be prepared for another encircling battle.
Militarily, the situation for the Russian occupying forces near Cherson seems almost hopeless: just a glance at the map shows how threatening the situation in the Cherson area is developing for Putin’s soldiers. Their supply and retreat routes across the Dnipro River are blocked. Strong Russian units, which had been deployed to the region in August to defend against the Ukrainian Cherson offensive, are crowding into the Cherson area. Thanks to Western military technology, the Ukrainians can target the few remaining ferry connections across the Dnipro.
On the front line west, north and northeast of Cherson, the Russians have so far been able to withstand the advances of the Ukrainians to a large extent. According to consistent reports, the fighting of the past few weeks has resulted in losses for both sides. A Ukrainian salient on the Inhulez River south of Davydiv Brid was temporarily pushed back. The offensive also made little progress on the highway from Cherson to Mykolayiv.
However, the sudden Ukrainian gains at Davydiv Brid and on the banks of the Dnipro now point to a major collapse in the Russian defenses. Within a few days, dozens of villages in the region were liberated. The front line suddenly seems very mobile. In fact, the local conditions favor rapid movements of the attackers: the landscape on the western bank of the Dnipro is largely flat.
In the region, which is characterized by agricultural land, there are only a few natural obstacles and hardly any larger towns in which the Russians could establish themselves. Added to this are the constant threats in the flank: on the flat land, the Ukrainians’ motorized units can quickly bypass the Russian positions.
To avoid the danger of encirclement, the Russian forces fell back towards the city of Kherson. The Russians may be trying to stop the Ukrainian advances on the lower reaches of the Inhulez. Coming from the north, the heavily tortuous course of the river runs like a natural barrier right through the combat area to its confluence with the Dnipro. The city of Kherson itself and the airport on the western outskirts appear to remain firmly in Russian hands.
It is still unclear how long the Russian occupation troops can hold out in the city near the mouth of the Dnipro. Supply from the air seems difficult. There is no prospect of more extensive reinforcements: the mighty Dnipro River can currently only be crossed with pontoon ferries. The river also prevents the Russian soldiers from retreating further into the safe hinterland. A significant part of the invading Russian army is trapped at Cherson.