Maps of the Battle of Avdiivka: Where Russia is attacking

Maps of the Battle of Avdiivka
Where Russia is attacking

By Martin Morcinek
January 26, 2024, 7:17 p.m

Brutal battles in eastern Ukraine: Russian troops advance against the Ukrainian lines near Avdiivka regardless of losses. At the end of January, the attackers changed their strategy. A look at the map provides clues about Russian attack plans.

There are signs of movement in the battle for Avdiivka: Almost three and a half months after the start of the Russian offensive in early October, Moscow’s invading army has apparently found a weak point in the Ukrainian defense lines. Russian shock troops approached the city limits in several places at the end of January.

Unlike before, the advances are not coming from the flanks in the west or north of the city. This time, according to consistent reports, the Russian attacks are aimed directly at the city center from the south. Individual shock troops, covered by heavy artillery, work their way north along small side streets through abandoned suburban settlements. They seem to have achieved a major breakthrough on Sobornaja Street.

A bold commando action could have given the attackers a decisive advantage: Russian infantry underground reached the defenders’ rear undetected through an old, partly flooded canal, the “Kyiv Post” reported, citing Russian sources. As a result, the attackers managed to penetrate almost two kilometers deep behind the Ukrainian lines and capture the position on the outskirts of the city that had been converted into a fortress.

Industrial facilities prove to be a bulwark

The reports sound plausible: In fact, the front line in the south of the city has been showing a threatening new bulge for a few days now. The Russian attacks on the surface of the earth are well documented based on published video material: in the middle of the week, according to Ukrainian information, a Russian advance guard even managed to penetrate into the urban area of ​​Avdiivka for the first time. The Ukrainians were only able to stop the attack with difficulty. The situation remains “difficult but under control,” it said.

The front line has moved closer to Avdiivka in the south. At the same time, the Russians are not letting up in their efforts to encompass the small town, which once had a population of around 30,000, in their wide-ranging pincer movement. In the situation report of the Ukrainian General Staff, new attacks continue to be reported here every day.

Overall, the Russian terrain gains at Avdijwka remain manageable. On the front sections in the north and west of the city, for example, little has changed since the beginning of the major Russian offensive. Even on the railway embankment near Stepowe – the scene of intense fighting for weeks – the Russians were only able to move their front line a good two kilometers to the west. The extensive industrial facilities of what was once the largest coking plant in Ukraine are proving to be a secure bulwark.

On the left wing, Russian attempts to encircle the country are making even worse progress. The local conditions favor the defenders here: north of the airport ruins, open, flat land begins near Wodjane and Opytne. Narrow hedgerows offer little cover there, and attacking battle tanks and armored personnel carriers can be seen from a long distance by the Ukrainian anti-tank defense.

On the other hand, from the Russian perspective, the advance from the south through the ruined suburban settlements seems to promise more success. The approach resembles the familiar pattern: Similar to weeks before in Marjinka or near Bakhmut, the Russian attack units fight their way meter by meter behind a roller of fire. They destroy everything that stands in their way or provides cover for the enemy.

Combat revolves around house ruins

In a concentrated barrage of rocket launchers, mortars and heavy artillery, street after street is ready for attack. From the air, armed drones search the area for hidden defenders. As soon as the situation appears favorable, the Russian commanders send individual groups of soldiers into the rubble desert as advance guards. As soon as the defenders open fire on the attackers, they themselves become the target of volleys of artillery and missiles.

The fight in inhabited areas only revolves around house ruins, covered shelters and the poorly preserved cellar holes. In Marjinka, the Russian attack tactics leveled entire residential streets. The southern suburbs of Avdiivka now face a similar fate. For days, the Russian artillery has been firing from all cylinders, especially on the three streets in the district Sobornaya Street.

In the satellite image, the traces of the fighting can now be seen as a dark spot south of the city center in the wintry conditions prevailing there. The Ukrainians can still stop the massive Russian attacks. With the Russian commando operation underground, the fight also moves into the city’s sewer system. For the Ukrainians, this means that they will have to keep an eye on a further level of the battlefield in the future. The enemy is suffering heavy losses near Avdiivka, it is said unmoved from Kiev. But how long can the defenders hold out?

With the growing artillery superiority of the Russian military machine and an impending shortage of ammunition on the Ukrainian side, defense is becoming increasingly difficult – especially since Russia is constantly sending new troops into the fire according to the proven strategy of war of attrition without regard to people and material.