by Tim Hepher
PARIS (Reuters) – Airbus’ delivery target for this year looks increasingly elusive according to industry sources and provisional data, but analysts say shareholders are unlikely to make a big deal out of it. a misfire, with their attention turned to 2023.
Airbus has announced plans to deliver “about 700” civil aircraft in 2022, a target subject to growing uncertainty because it assumes a record month of December and without any unforeseen events, we learned from sources in the sector.
“It’s hard to see them reaching 700 deliveries” over the full year, a senior supply chain source told Reuters, adding that planes in production had an average of four months of delay on the planned schedule.
Several analysts point out, however, that Airbus has already managed in the past to achieve objectives that seemed very ambitious.
According to the most recent figures quoted by the specialized analysis firm Cirium, Airbus has so far delivered 536 planes since January 1, a figure which implies 39 to 41 deliveries since the beginning of November.
If we take into account a few days of delay in accounting for deliveries and the very last days of the month, the total at the end of November could increase by around ten units, sources said.
Even so, the month of November would therefore result in a number of planes delivered closer to 60 than 70, notes an analyst, while Airbus suppliers evoke a production schedule closer to 80.
An Airbus spokesperson declined to comment on the matter pending the monthly delivery update scheduled for December 8.
TENSIONS ALREADY MENTIONED FOR 2023
Over the first ten months of the year, the Toulouse-based group delivered 495 aircraft if we take into account the cancellation of the delivery of two aircraft due to Western sanctions targeting Russia.
“The market would most likely accept a slight miss for 2022 at around 690 deliveries, but the bottom line is what that implies for 2023 deliveries,” said Sash Tusa, a specialist analyst at Agency Partners.
A second analyst, who requested anonymity, said: “If they miss 10 planes nobody will react, but if they miss 20 it will show that things are not going the way they should.”
Two industry sources said some aircraft lessors and other buyers were increasingly urged to wait until the end of December for some deliveries as Airbus faced multiple tensions over engines, supply chains or more labor.
These tensions could amplify the emergency situation already often observed at the very end of the year, which sometimes results in deliveries in the very last hours of December.
On the Paris Stock Exchange, the Airbus share lost 5.01% to 108.12 euros less than an hour from closing on Monday, the largest drop in the CAC 40 index, then down 0.43%.
The title suffers in particular from information published Friday by Reuters according to which the aircraft manufacturer is preparing the ground for new delays in the delivery of medium-haul aircraft next year.
Investors are waiting for guidance from Airbus on how many planes it expects to deliver in 2023. A number they currently estimate averages at 820, writes Jefferies analyst Chloe Lemarie, citing a consensus .
(Tim Hepher report, French version Marc Angrand, edited by Sophie Louet)
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