The main European stock markets are expected to start falling again at the opening on Wednesday, after Wall Street’s decline at the end of the session and before the publication of monthly consumer price figures in the United States, the most risky economic meeting. of the week.
Index futures suggest a drop of 0.44% for the CAC 40 in Paris, 0.61% for the Dax in Frankfurt, 0.35% for the FTSE 100 in London and 0.58% for the EuroStoxx 50.
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI), to be released at 12:30 GMT, is expected to rise 1.1% in June from May and 8.8% year on year according to consensus Refinitiv, which would be a new 40-year high.
A figure in line with or above the consensus could support the scenario of a continuation of the rapid tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, even at the risk of a recession.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also revised downwards its growth forecasts for the United States once again on Tuesday: it now expects GDP growth to be limited to 2.3% this year and 1.0 % next year.
In Germany, inflation was confirmed at 8.2% over one year in June and the final figures on price trends in France are expected at 06:45 GMT.
As another illustration of the fact that inflation remains by far the number one concern of political and monetary authorities, the South Korean and New Zealand central banks have raised their main key interest rate by half a point.
In China, foreign trade statistics for the first half exceeded expectations with a 13.2% year-on-year growth in exports and a 4.8% increase in imports.
VALUES TO FOLLOW:
AT WALL STREET
The New York Stock Exchange ended lower on Tuesday as fears of a recession prompted investors to be cautious on the eve of the release of consumer price figures and two days before the unofficial start of the earnings season.
The Dow Jones Index fell 0.62%, or 192.51 points, to 30,981.33, the Standard & Poor’s 500 lost 35.63 points, or 0.92%, to 3,818.80 and the Nasdaq Composite lost fell 107.87 points (-0.95%) to 11,264.73.
All three had a choppy session but the trend weakened late in the session. The 11 major S&P sector indices ended in negative territory, with the energy index losing 2.03% with the drop in oil prices.
On the rise, Boeing jumped 7.42% after reporting monthly deliveries at their highest since March 2019.
IN ASIA
On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei index ended up 0.54%, driven by the values of semiconductors and air transport against a backdrop of falling oil prices.
In China, shares are trying to rebound after three consecutive sessions of decline, based on foreign trade figures: the Shanghai SSE Composite is up 0.06% and the CSI 300 0.26%.
CHANGES
On the currency market, the euro remains close to parity with the dollar at 1.0029 but some traders expect this threshold to be lowered during the day if US inflation hits a new high. 40 years old.
“I believe the US dollar will continue to appreciate if the US CPI is stronger than expected,” said Joe Capurso, strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
The single currency is also flirting with its 200-day average against the pound sterling.
RATE
Yields on US government bonds are up slightly, at 2.9613% for the ten-year and 3.045% for the two-year, but the highlight of the moment is the increasingly marked inversion of the yield curve in the two-to-ten-year segment.
The spread between the two maturities peaked at 12.4 basis points on Tuesday, its highest level since March 2010 according to Refinitiv data.
In Europe, the German ten-year yield is almost stable in early trading at 1.148%.
OIL
The oil market is evolving without a clear trend after the air pocket suffered on Tuesday, the uncertainty over US inflation stifling for the moment any hint of a rebound.
Brent fell 0.02% to 99.47 dollars a barrel and US light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) fell 0.03% to 95.81 dollars.
They lost 7.1% and 7.9% respectively on Tuesday at the end of a volatile session, with many players selling positions before the economic and financial deadlines for the second part of the week.
(Written by Marc Angrand, with Rae Wee and Tom Westbrook in Singapore, editing by Matthieu Protard and Kate Entringer)
Copyright © 2022 Thomson Reuters