(CercleFinance.com) – The Paris Stock Exchange should open with small variations on Monday morning in trading volumes that promise to be reduced for this last week before Christmas.
Around 8:15 a.m., the ‘future’ contract on the CAC 40 index – which has now switched to the January deadline – advances by 25.5 points to 6479.5 points, signaling a very slight increase in the start of the session.
After last week’s turbulent course, mainly driven by the meetings of the world’s major central banks, this week promises to be much calmer in terms of economic meetings.
The Fed, the ECB and the Bank of England all surprised the markets last week by continuing to raise their rates but above all by raising the prospect of high rates for an extended period, which caused the world’s stock markets to falter.
US equity markets all lost around 2% last week, marking a second straight week in the red, although their weekly losses were more limited than at the end of the previous week.
In Paris, the CAC 40 ended the week with a weekly decline of nearly 3.8% to drop below its major medium-term support of 6,500 points.
‘Suffice to say that the upward trend is prematurely abandoned and that a change of configuration is looming for the Parisian index’, warn the chartists of Kiplink Finance.
‘A first stabilization on this support zone between 6540 and 6500 points is more than desirable’, estimates the Paris stock exchange company.
The week that opens on Monday is traditionally a quiet period for the markets, investors preferring to protect their portfolios and focus on preparations for Christmas, if they have not simply gone on vacation.
In the absence of catalysts, market participants could also begin to refine their strategy as we approach 2023 and the next earnings season, which begins in January.
Among the indicators for the week are relatively secondary figures in the United States, such as the Conference Board’s leading indicators, household spending or durable goods orders.
The only statistic expected today, the Ifo index of the business climate in Germany could sign a small rebound in December, in line with the evolution of the PMI and the ZEW.
This penultimate week of the year will above all offer investors a welcome respite to digest the recent announcements on the future evolution of monetary policies.
With continued uncertainty surrounding the timing of central bank rate hikes and the growing threat of a recession, it is far from certain that stock markets will experience a year-end. positive.
Traditionally, stock markets rise during the very last weeks of the year.
The rise of the S&P 500 index over the last five days of December and the first two days of January thus averaged 1.3%, according to data from the Stock Trader’s Almanac
But the 2022 financial year will have to end with a bang for the famous ‘Christmas rally’ to materialize. Over the first two weeks of December, the S&P 500 index is currently down 6%.
The same goes for the CAC, which has fallen by 4.2% since the start of the month and is still down 9.8% since the start of the year, which means that it is preparing to complete, in the state, its largest annual decline since 2018 (-10.9%).
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