Market: Europe expected to rebound, American trajectory remains unclear

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PARIS (Reuters) – European stock markets are expected to rebound at the open on Monday as investors reposition after a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report on Friday, ahead of a European Central Bank (ECB) meeting looming.

Futures suggest an opening gain of 0.49% for the Parisian CAC 40, against a rise of 0.66% for the FTSE in London, a surge of 0.42% for the Dax in Frankfurt, and a revaluation of 0.51% for the EuroStoxx 50.

Data from the monthly employment report for August appeared contradictory: while the number of jobs created was lower than expected, the unemployment rate was lower than expected, while wage pressures remain strong.

The monthly report therefore did not allow investors to make a clear diagnosis of the health of the American economy, and the question of the extent of the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve is therefore still uncertain: on Thursday, investors were expecting 33.8 basis points of easing for September, compared to 32.2 on Monday.

The CPI inflation figures, the last major release before the central bank’s next meeting on September 18, will therefore be essential for rate expectations.

In the absence of clear direction, markets could continue to be volatile.

Eurozone operators will also begin to prepare for the ECB’s next decision, expected on Thursday, which should result in a 25 basis point cut in key rates, according to money markets.

“The outcome of Thursday’s ECB meeting is easy to predict: a further rate cut of 25 basis points,” summarises Klaus Baader, chief economist at Société Générale CIB.

“But ECB members will have to position themselves on a delicate outlook, characterized by stable wages and services inflation despite weaker growth, particularly in the manufacturing sector,” the economist adds.

ON WALL STREET

The New York Stock Exchange ended sharply lower on Friday after the publication of the monthly report on the US labor market, showing a lower-than-expected number of jobs, which weighs on the uncertainty about a cut in interest rates by the Fed.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.01 percent, or 410.34 points, to 40,345.41. The broader Standard & Poor’s 500 lost 94.99 points, or 1.73 percent, to 5,408.42. The Nasdaq Composite index fell 436.83 points, or 2.55 percent, to 16,690.832.

The Dow Jones and Standard & Poor’s recorded their biggest weekly declines since March 2023, while the Nasdaq’s last drop was in January 2022.

IN ASIA

The Japanese stock market is falling in the wake of the decline on Wall Street and very large capitalizations. The Nikkei index is down 0.77% to 36,110.29 points. The broader Topix is ​​down 0.87% to 2,574.90 points.

The semiconductor sector posted the biggest decline in the Nikkei, with chip test equipment maker Lasertec dropping 5.3%, compared with 4.1% for chipmaker Renesas Electronics.

Chinese stocks hit a seven-month low as inflation data released Monday raised concerns that the Chinese economy is slipping into deflation. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 1.95%, Shanghai’s SSE Composite index fell 0.97%, and the CSI 300 declined 1.04%.

RATE

US yields consolidate after four consecutive sessions of decline.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose 3.6 bps to 3.7456%, while the two-year yield rose 4.6 bps to 3.6956%.

CHANGES

The yen is eroding against the dollar after rebounding 2.7% over the past week against the greenback as investors digest the latest U.S. data.

In Asia, the yen declined by 0.45% to 142.91 yen per dollar, the Australian dollar was stable at 0.667 dollars.

The dollar gained 0.17% against a basket of benchmark currencies, the euro eroded 0.08% to $1.1074, and the pound sterling lost 0.06% to $1.3115.

OIL

The barrel is rising after losing 10% over the previous week, with US meteorologists warning that a hurricane could form in the Gulf of Mexico, where most US production is concentrated.

Brent rose 1.27% to $71.96 per barrel, while American light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) rose 1.34% to $68.58.

(Written by Corentin Chappron)

Copyright © 2024 Thomson Reuters

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