PARIS (Reuters) – European stock markets are expected to rise at the opening on Monday, with geopolitical fears fading in a data-poor context.
According to the first available indications, the Parisian CAC 40 is up 0.50% at the opening. Futures contracts on the FTSE in London suggest an advance at the opening of 0.8%, compared to 0.27% for the Dax in Frankfurt and 0.33% for the EuroStoxx 50.
Relief grips markets as prospects of war between Israel and Iran appear to recede, with both adversaries showing restraint following the latest strike on Iranian territory on Friday.
The markets are therefore once again focusing on the monetary trajectory, while the Federal Reserve will meet on May 1st.
The few indicators which will be published between now and then in the United States will be followed with all the more interest as the members of the Fed’s Board of Governors can no longer speak until the next meeting.
The US GDP figures for the first quarter on Thursday and especially the PCE inflation indicator on Friday could therefore have a significant impact on the markets, especially if they surprise on the upside and support the idea that rates will remain restrictive for the long term.
With the exception of PMIs on Tuesday, few leading indicators are expected in the euro zone this week. On Monday, the statements of the President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, at 3:30 p.m. GMT, could also influence the outlook for market rates.
The results season will continue on both sides of the Atlantic, with figures from Tesla, Meta Platforms, Alphabet and Microsoft notably expected this week.
A WALL STREET
The New York Stock Exchange ended in disorganized order on Friday, penalized by disappointing forecasts from Netflix and the restrictive posture of the Fed, while the results of American Express kept the Dow Jones afloat.
The Dow Jones index gained 0.56%, or 211.02 points, to 37,986.40 points. The broader Standard & Poor’s 500 lost 43.89 points, or 0.88%, to 4,967.23 points. The Nasdaq Composite fell 319.49 points (-2.05%) to 15,282.01.
Netflix lost 9.9% after announcing on Thursday that it would no longer provide subscriber numbers, while its revenue forecast for the second quarter disappointed expectations.
On the other hand, the Dow Jones benefited from better-than-expected profits from American Express, whose shares advanced 6.23%.
IN ASIA
The Tokyo Stock Exchange is rebounding, supported by cheap buying as Israel and Iran appear to be seeking to avoid escalation. The Nikkei index gained 0.4% to 37,215.35 points while the broader Topix gained 0.97% to 2,651.61.
Stocks linked to semiconductors continue to decline. Tokyo Electron lost 4.21%, while Advantest lost 4.89% and chipmaking equipment supplier Disco dropped 5.26%.
Hong Kong markets are progressing after a series of measures intended to strengthen the attractiveness of the place. The Hong Kong Hang Seng index gained 1.8%. The Shanghai SSE Composite fell by 0.53%, the CSI 300 by 0.22%.
RATE
US yields are rebounding, with investors once again focusing on the rate outlook while the risk of an escalation in the Middle East appears to have been avoided.
The ten-year Treasury yield rose 4.1 basis points to 4.6559%, while the two-year rate strengthened by 3.5 bps to 5.0036%.
CHANGES
Foreign exchange markets vary little but the dollar is eroding as fears linked to geopolitics recede.
The dollar declined by 0.1% against a basket of reference currencies, while the euro gained 0.09% to 1.0664 dollars and the pound sterling 0.08% to 1.2381 dollars.
In Asia, the yen is stable at 154.69 yen per dollar, while the Australian dollar rises 0.2% to 0.643 dollars.
OIL
Crude is falling as the geopolitical situation has relaxed, while the rise in oil stocks in the United States is raising fears of a slowdown in demand: according to figures from the Energy Information Administration, inventories have increased by 2. 7 million barrels per week as of April 12, compared to 1.4 million expected by consensus.
Brent lost 0.81% to 86.58 dollars per barrel, American light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) losing 0.83% to 82.45 dollars.
(Written by Corentin Chappron, edited by Bertrand Boucey)
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