PARIS (Reuters) – The rating agency Fitch Ratings announced on Thursday that it was revising its forecast for growth of the world economy downwards to 2.4% for this year and 1.7% for next year, a drop respectively by half a point and one point compared to previous estimates, due to the gas crisis in Europe and the acceleration of central bank interest rate hikes.
According to Fitch Ratings, the euro zone and the United Kingdom are expected to enter recession later this year, while in the United States this could happen in mid-2023.
Eurozone gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to contract by 0.1% next year (-2.2 percentage points from the June forecast), while growth in the United States is expected this year at 1.7% (-1.2 point) and in 2023 at 0.5% (-1 point).
In China, the agency expects growth now limited to 2.8% (-0.9 point) this year before a rebound to 4.5% (-0.8 point) next year, due in particular to the health restrictions linked to the resurgence of COVID-19 and the collapse of the real estate market.
Fitch’s new forecasts are based on a total or almost total stoppage of Russian gas supplies in Europe and an increase in interest rates, by the end of the year, to 4% in the United States, to 2% in the euro zone and 3.25% in the United Kingdom.
(Written by Claude Chendjou, edited by Kate Entringer)
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