by Leigh Thomas
PARIS (Reuters) – Household sentiment in the two largest eurozone countries saw divergent developments in August, with French consumers benefiting from government support measures while fears of soaring gas and electricity bills ectricity was of concern to Germans, surveys published on Friday show.
While the French Parliament voted in the middle of the summer on a new package of measures to support purchasing power, the German energy market authority announced that a new tax would hit consumers from October in order to offset the impact of the reduction in Russian gas purchases.
In France, the household confidence index calculated by INSEE rebounded in August after seven consecutive months of decline, to 82 against 80 in July, even if it remains at a level well below its long-term average. The Reuters consensus gave it down one point.
The “purchasing power” bill finally adopted by Parliament on August 3 includes measures to limit fuel prices, the extension of the “energy shield” put in place last year or the abolition of the tax audiovisual.
This text and the amending finance bill also voted by the deputies and senators also provide for an early revaluation of retirement pensions and certain social benefits as well as an increase in the index point which serves as the basis for calculating remuneration. officials.
With an inflation rate of 6.8% over one year in July, France also remains, along with Malta, one of the countries in the euro zone the least severely affected by inflation.
“Household confidence could continue to improve in the fall, due to increases in income which will allow a slight increase in purchasing power,” commented Sylvain Bersinger, from the economic research firm Asterès.
Household morale has also improved in recent weeks in Italy, despite the political uncertainty linked to the fall of Mario Draghi’s government and the calling of early legislative elections scheduled for next month.
The Italian consumer confidence index thus rose to 98.3 after 94.8 in July, returning to its June level, while economists polled by Reuters had forecast a further decline to 92.5.
But in Germany, the trend remains gloomy: the monthly survey by the GfK institute predicts a new historic low in household morale in September, with an index falling to -36.5 against -31.8 expected.
Germans, explains GfK, are forced to save money to be able to meet their gas and electricity bills during the winter and the situation could deteriorate further in the event of gas shortages in the coming months.
For Alexander Krüger, chief economist of Hauck Aufhäuser Lampe, this prospect could weigh on other consumer spending.
“What you have to understand is that the coming recession will be linked primarily to consumption. Since the government caused the gas debacle, it must provide much more support than what it is talking about. right now,” he explains.
(Report Leigh Thomas, with Benoît Van Overstraeten in Paris, Miranda Murray and Christian Kraemer in Berlin and Gavin Jones in Rome; French version Marc Angrand, edited by Sophie Louet)
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