FRANKFURT (Reuters) – Inflation in the euro zone could be lower than expected in the coming years while remaining above the European Central Bank’s 2% target, the institution’s survey showed on Friday. from professional forecasters.
The ECB has raised its key rates at each of its last seven meetings in the face of pressures on underlying inflation.
The institution’s Quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), an important element of the Governing Council’s debates, shows that inflation forecasts have been reduced from 5.9% to 5.6 % for 2023 and from 2.7% to 2.6% for 2024.
The forecast for 2025, the last year of the ECB’s projections, has been raised from 2.1% to 2.2% and the “longer term” figure, i.e. by 2027, has was maintained at 2.1%.
However, core inflation forecasts have only been raised for this year.
ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Thursday after a quarter-point rate hike that while most measures of long-term inflation expectations are around 2%, some indicators have edged higher. and warrant continued monitoring.
Economic growth forecasts for this year have also been raised to 0.6%, but this remains well below the 1% expected by the central bank. The projection for 2024 has been reduced from 1.4% to 1.2%, suggesting moderate growth for years to come.
Forecasters also anticipate a faster decline in unemployment than in the previous survey, to 6.8% this year from 7% previously.
(Balazs Koranyi, French version Laetitia Volga, edited by Kate Entringer)
Copyright © 2023 Thomson Reuters