(CercleFinance.com) – The Paris Stock Exchange is expected to fall on Wednesday at the opening before the publication of two major statistics in the euro zone and the United States, which could provide more information on the reality of a possible recession.
Around 8:15 a.m., the futures contract on the CAC 40 index – due July – fell 47 points to 6029.5 points, announcing the start of the session in negative territory.
Investors expect several key indicators today, starting with the first estimate of inflation in Germany for the month of June, which will be released at 2:00 p.m.
Despite a reduction in gasoline taxes, prices at the pump changed little in June across the Rhine, which leads economists to anticipate no imminent decline in inflation, which was close to 8% in May.
Another important meeting, the publication, at 2:30 p.m., of the third estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) for the United States in the first quarter.
This statistic will be accompanied by the PCE index of retail prices excluding food and energy, which will say more about the evolution of inflation.
While concerns about US economic growth remain strong, these indicators could provide new elements regarding the Fed’s future course in terms of monetary policy for the months to come.
Investors should also be cautious before an intervention by Jerome Powell, the president of the American Federal Reserve, during the forum organized by the ECB in Sintra (Portugal).
On the side of Wall Street, the ‘futures’ on indices signal for the moment an opening of the American markets up from 0.1% to 0.3%.
US and European stock markets returned to the upside last week as bond yields began to ease, but the lull was short-lived.
The upturn in long-term interest rates now seems like a distant memory, as the ECB confirmed yesterday that it wanted to go ‘as far as necessary to fight inflation’.
As a result, the yield on French OATs is again tending to around 2.17%, while Bunds now stand at 1.62%.
In the United States, 10-year T-Bonds confirm their return to the 3.2% zone after falling back towards 3.1% at the end of last week.
In a note published in the morning, the strategists evoke ‘an accumulation of bad news which cools the appetite for risk’.
Weighed down by a household confidence index deemed unreassuring, the New York Stock Exchange fell significantly on Tuesday, the Dow Jones having dropped nearly 1.6% and the Nasdaq Composite having unscrewed by nearly 3%.
In Paris, the CAC 40 index manages for the moment to stay above its major resistance of 6085 points and the technical analysts of Kiplink ensure that the proximity of 6050 points leaves the index in an advantageous position to test the zone. higher from 6145 to 6180 points.
But the recent bullish bias of the Parisian market will no doubt be put to the test during these very last sessions of the second quarter.
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