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by Diana Mandia
(Reuters) – Wall Street is expected to fall and the European stock markets are also falling mid-session, weighed down by the automobile sector, while investors opt for caution at the start of a week full of indicators and before Christine Lagarde, the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), will address the European Parliament later today. Futures on New York indices signal an opening on Wall Street down 0.15% for the Dow Jones, from 0.19% for the S&P-500 0.19% and 0.20% for the Nasdaq. In Paris, the CAC 40 lost 1.67% to 7,661.64 points around 11:20 GMT. In Frankfurt, the Dax fell by 0.61% and in London, the FTSE lost 0.68%.
The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index lost 0.89%, the Eurozone EuroStoxx 50 0.95% and the Stoxx 600 0.94%.
The automotive sector’s woes are weighing on sentiment in Europe, after two industry heavyweights, Stellantis and Volkswagen, lowered their annual forecasts, joining other names in the sector such as Mercedes and BMW. Automakers face weak demand in China and the United States, as well as trade disputes between Beijing and the EU.
Equity markets are also turning their attention to upcoming economic data, notably German inflation on Monday and Eurozone inflation on Tuesday, while the US employment report will be published on Friday.
In Europe, investors are seeking reassurance after the publication last week of less than optimistic data on commercial activity in the euro zone, which contracted sharply and unexpectedly in September due to the stagnation of services and a continued slowdown in the manufacturing industry.
German inflation, the main macroeconomic event in Europe on Monday, is expected to slow in September, continuing the trend already observed in two other major euro zone economies, Spain and France.
“In view of the data already published in France and Italy, disinflation is increasing in the euro zone. Germany should not be an exception. The inflation rate (…) should fall below the threshold of 2% this month. As household consumption is stagnant, there is no domestic inflationary pressure,” Oddo BHF analysts wrote in a note on Monday.
Elsewhere in Europe, the British economy grew by 0.5% in the second quarter, slightly less than the preliminary estimate of 0.6%. Economists polled by Reuters had expected the 0.6% estimate to be confirmed.
Comments from top central bankers are also scheduled for Monday. ECB President Christine Lagarde is due to address the European Parliament at 1:00 p.m. GMT and US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to address the National Association for Business Economics in Nashville, Tennessee, at 5:55 p.m. GMT.
VALUES TO FOLLOW AT WALL STREET
Caution is also setting in in New York ahead of the release of the jobs report and comments from Jerome Powell, which will be closely watched as the Fed begins to ease monetary policy and bets strengthen for a new drop of 50 points in November.
Automakers Ford and General Motors fell about 3% each after European rivals Stellantis NV and Volkswagen both announced cuts to their annual outlooks on Friday and Monday.
VALUES IN EUROPE
The automotive sector is down 4.1% after profit warnings from Stellantis (-14%) and Volkswagen (-2.4%), which follow those of other heavyweights in the industry such as Mercedes ( -2.2%), BMW (-2.5%).
In Paris, Renault fell by more than 6%.
Atos, whose shareholders and financial creditors voted favorably on Friday for the proposed accelerated safeguard plan, takes 3%.
RATE
Short-term yields on eurozone bonds rose on Monday ahead of the publication of German inflation data, with caution required in particular due to changes in service prices.
The yield on ten-year German bonds, the benchmark for the euro zone, is unchanged at 2.13%, while that of the two-year bond, the most sensitive to rate expectations, rises 2 basis points to 2 .10%.
In France, the yield gap between French and German 10-year bonds stands at 79.3. The spread is under pressure as French Prime Minister Michel Barnier must adopt the 2025 budget before the end of the year and tackle a public deficit which is expected to exceed 6% of gross domestic product (GDP). here 2024.
In the United States, the yield on ten-year Treasuries rose 1.7 basis points to 3.76%, in a context of escalation in the Middle East and speculation around rate cuts across world central banks.
CHANGES
The dollar continues its decline after US inflation data indicated on Friday that pressure on prices continued to ease.
The dollar lost 0.09% against a basket of reference currencies, while the euro gained 0.32% to 1.12 dollars.
OIL
Oil prices were mostly lower on Monday as the demand outlook outweighed fears of an escalation in the Middle East. Operators are particularly wondering whether the stimulus measures in China will be enough to stimulate demand in the world’s second largest economy, which has been weaker than expected since the start of the year.
The barrel of Brent fell by 0.92% and that of American light crude oil (WTI) by 0.72%.
(Written by Diana Mandiá, edited by Augustin Turpin)
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