McCarthy has to tremble when elected speaker

The US Congress will meet in a new composition on Tuesday for the first time since the elections last November. What is normally considered a formality in the House of Representatives has already become a political thriller in the run-up: Republican MP Kevin McCarthy has to tremble about his election as Speaker of the House of Representatives.

Slight party majority

The office of Speaker is the third highest in the United States, after that of President and Vice President. It is usually occupied by an MP from the majority party. As Chairman of the House of Representatives, he determines which bills are discussed, which tactics his own party chooses and which negotiations are conducted behind the scenes. The previous chair was Nancy Pelosi, who resigned last winter.

In the congressional elections in November, the Republicans regained control of the House of Representatives. In the old constellation, the Republicans in the House of Representatives nominated Californian Kevin McCarthy, the previous minority leader, as a candidate for the office of speaker. For the majority of Republicans in the grand chamber, McCarthy is still the preferred candidate today. However, their votes are not enough for McCarthy, the majority of the party is too small for that.

McCarthy needs 218 votes for a successful election if all MPs are present and none abstain. The Republicans have 222 seats. The Democrats have already announced that they will not vote for McCarthy. If only five party members refuse to vote in this scenario, there will be at least one more ballot. The delegates then vote until a new speaker is elected. Only then can the MPs tackle further business.

Right wing opponents

For the majority party, the speaker election is usually an easy matter. But the Republican Party is divided. The fact that the faction only has a slim majority has strengthened the power of the right wing. For 218 votes from his own party, McCarthy is also dependent on numerous supporters from the so-called Freedom Caucus, a particularly conservative group within the Republican faction.

For members of the Freedom Caucus, McCarthy is part of the establishment that they say is preventing urgent changes in the political system. According to the “Washington Post” Almost 15 members of the Republican faction are unsure whether they will vote for McCarthy. In return, they are demanding comprehensive organizational reforms in the House of Representatives from McCarthy.

votes against rule changes

Since his nomination last fall, McCarthy has been trying to appease critics from within his own ranks. For their votes, McCarthy was also willing to give in to certain demands. Among other things, he agreed to a rule whereby five MPs can call a short-term vote of confidence against him at any time. The law is part of a larger package of new rules for the House of Representatives that McCarthy promised in exchange for the votes.

Despite efforts, five MPs still speak out publicly against McCarthy. There were also others who spoke anonymously to the American media. According to media reports, McCarthy tried to persuade enough opponents to change their minds. So far there has been no success. So McCarthy has to tremble about his election until the end.

Blockade of the House of Representatives threatened

McCarthy would be the first candidate for chairman of the House in a hundred years not to win a majority of the vote in the first round. If McCarthy is elected against the odds, he will come into office weakened. Even then, he will only be able to achieve majorities within his own party by making further concessions to the right wing.

McCarthy’s only advantage is that he’s the only serious candidate for the post so far. His supporters point out that only a more moderate speaker would be an option if McCarthy’s election fails. Then a consensus is only possible if some of the Democrats vote for such a candidate.