McKinsey: Millions of job changes
AI could automate a third of working hours
23.05.2024, 08:11 a.m.
According to a recent study, artificial intelligence is likely to significantly change up to three million jobs in Germany in the next few years. Across Europe, almost twelve million jobs would have to be changed. Unemployment is looming in the low-wage sector.
If artificial intelligence systems are introduced quickly in companies, many employees in Germany will have to prepare for serious professional changes. According to a recent study by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), up to three million jobs in Germany would be affected by the change by 2030, which corresponds to seven percent of total employment.
The McKinsey researchers’ scenario assumes an accelerated introduction of AI systems in the US and Europe. This could lead to the automation of almost a third of working hours by 2030. By 2035, this figure could even rise to 45 percent in the EU. According to calculations, almost twelve million job changes could be necessary in Europe and the United States by 2030. In Europe, this corresponds to 6.5 percent of current jobs.
The study authors see this trend as a risk that the labor market will develop negatively. On the one hand, highly qualified and above-average paid jobs could hardly be filled. On the other hand, there is a risk of an oversupply of workers in the low-wage sector. In Europe, the share of high-paying professions could increase by 1.8 percentage points, while the share of low-paying professions could fall by 1.4 percentage points.
Office jobs particularly affected
The McKinsey researchers see the biggest changes coming to office jobs in the administrative areas of companies and public institutions. More than every second job change caused by AI (54 percent) in Germany falls into this area. Along with Italy, Germany is particularly affected because office support jobs make up a high proportion of total employment. Customer service and sales followed at 17 percent, while production activities were affected at 16 percent.
The best way for employees potentially affected to protect themselves from being sidelined by AI is through training and other qualification measures. According to the study, demand for technical skills will increase sharply, by 25 percent in Europe alone. But social and emotional skills will also be in greater demand (plus 12 percent).
Good for the economy?
The McKinsey researchers see the economic consequences as positive under these conditions: through an accelerated introduction of artificial intelligence and effective further qualification of employees in the European economy, the annual productivity growth rate in Europe could be increased to three percent by 2030.
The study by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) examined the most important economic and social developments up to 2030 in the USA and ten European countries, including Germany, France, the Netherlands, Spain, Great Britain, Sweden, Italy, Denmark, the Czech Republic and Poland. Furthermore, more than 1,100 board members of companies in Germany, France, Italy, Great Britain and the USA were surveyed.