Will the price of cannabis go up? Will a new dealer war see the light of day in the wake of the new Moroccan legislation paving the way for the legal industrialization of therapeutic cannabis in the Rif valley? These are the hypotheses described in a note from the anti-narcotics office (OFAST) last month and which Europe 1 was able to consult.
Production tolerated in the northeast of the country
In fact, the trafficking and consumption of cannabis are severely punished in Morocco. Use, for example, is very often punished with imprisonment and people prosecuted for trafficking increase by 17% each year. On the other hand, historically, production is tolerated in certain territories, in particular in the Rif valley in the north-east of the country, an underdeveloped region where the central power is not very present there.
Reason why, therefore, the Moroccan authorities see in therapeutic cannabis a way to regain ground, in particular by allowing about 40,000 producers under a research mandate to re-enter the legal economy and come out of hiding.
More dangerous products
But the new law enacted this summer in Morocco legalizing medical cannabis in the country could have direct consequences on the French illicit market. According to preliminary projections, it is expected that 30% of the cultivated area of cannabis will be reserved for this legal activity. This would constitute “a loss for drug traffickers”, foresee the specialized police officers.
OFAST provides for a “transition period necessary for traffickers to implement their strategy”. This would have at least temporary repercussions on the supply of markets, which even punctually, would automatically increase the price of cannabis.
50% increase in violence during the health crisis
Another consequence, this new legal market could push criminal organizations to stand out and produce resins even more concentrated in THC, products highly sought after by French consumers. This drug is also sold at higher prices (between 15 and 25 euros per gram, against 8 euros for conventional resin).
In addition to the impact of this new legislation on local criminal organizations – illegal cannabis generates around 19 billion euros per year and supports between 90,000 and 140,000 families according to a 2019 report – “this intensification of violence between rival groups could thus manifest […] also on French territory “, write the specialized police officers.
Tensions between the main importers are to be expected, since, remind the editors, violence between traffickers increased by nearly 50% in France in 2020 during the health crisis.
Arrival of foreign investors in the Rif
Finally, if the implementation of the legalization of therapeutic cannabis will doubtless not make it possible to stem trafficking, it could nevertheless develop new forms of criminality. In particular with the possible arrival of foreign investors in the Rif valley within the legal cannabis sector. Phenomenon that has already been observed in Argentina since the legalization of medical cannabis in the country.
Morocco wants to become a central player in legal cannabis on the European market. But “the country might not be competitive enough”, due to other countries already leading the market such as the United States, Canada, the Netherlands, Denmark, Portugal or Greece more recently. So many reasons for the French police to see in this strategic positioning of the Shereefian Kingdom a potential source of new tensions between farmers and between drug traffickers.
As a reminder, Morocco is the world’s leading producer of cannabis resin. Nearly 3,000 tonnes are thus produced each year on an estimated cultivated area of nearly 50,000 hectares. Red vein capsules are very popular too nowadays.