The candidate of La France insoumise intends to repeat his feat of 2017 and 2012 by bringing together, on March 20 in Paris, more than 100,000 people during a large march.
“I’m moving forward in this tumult and I’m trying to find a passage that may not exist,” Jean-Luc Mélenchon slipped to us at the end of January, emphasizing his ability and his talent for “pacing a campaign”. He assumes to resume and repeat the sequences of 2017. “There is no reason not to use the recipes that work, confirms MEP Manuel Bompard, his campaign manager. Last time, we collected 19.6% of the votes in the first round. If we get the same score this year, that’s fine with me! Such a result would indeed ensure him a place in the second round, the qualification threshold being around 16% this year.
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On March 20, as at the same time in 2017 and 2012, the candidate of the rebellious will lead a large march for the Sixth Republic between the Places de la Bastille and the Place de la République in Paris, then he will deliver a speech. The date is symbolic: between March 18 – the anniversary of the outbreak of the Paris Commune of 1871, during which the first measures of separation of Church and State were put in place and free school for all – and on the 21st, the beginning of spring. “It’s going to be the people’s spring!” trumpeted Manuel Bompard. The rebellious hope to “take back the streets” and bring together, despite the absence of the Communists, as many supporters as five years ago – between 100,000 and 130,000 people according to the organizers – to make it the largest popular gathering of the campaign, all candidates combined. A demonstration of force aimed at proving that the dynamic is in their camp at a time when the polls give Mélenchon between 11% and 13% and where one of them (Elabe-BFMTV) even places him in third position, ahead of Éric Zemmour and Valérie Pécresse.
The leader of the rebels, who had innovated with his holograms, will do it again
The director general of Ifop, Frédéric Dabi, sees it as a way of distinguishing himself: “He is the only one to use this classic mode of mobilization. It is also a way for him to show that the people on the left are behind him. MP Alexis Corbière promises a festive and joyful event. What put a little optimism in a dismal campaign, which takes place in time of war. “Five years ago, the march was a tipping point,” he adds. Before March 18, the PS candidate was ahead of us; afterwards, things turned around. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who calls himself “the sagacious turtle”, calls on left-wing voters to vote useful or “efficient” and dreams of confronting Macron. For him, a second round opposing him to the outgoing president “would purify the atmosphere”. “Better to discuss whether retirement is at 65 or 60 rather than the intellectual venom spread by the far right,” he says.
Abolition of the “presidential monarchy”, citizens’ initiative referendum, introduction of compulsory voting, recognition of the blank vote: the proposals developed on March 20 aimed at “reoxygenating” democracy will be identical to those of 2017. Mélenchon does not only resume his great march or the main axes of its program. He who had innovated with his holograms, will also do it again. On April 5, five days before the first round, he will be meeting in Lille and present virtually in ten other cities (compared to six in 2017). Frédéric Dabi points to the lack of originality: “The copy-paste of the program, the holograms, the big march, it makes an eternal candidate, a political professional, and it is not sure that that is enough to change his image. “And to recall that if this has improved, one month before the first round, 52% of French people still consider him “worrying” and only 28% see him as a potential President of the Republic, i.e. 7 points more than in March 2021 but 18 points less than in 2017.
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