Melitopol as “capital”
London: Russia admits failure
03/19/2023 6:53 p.m
The Zaporizhia region is only partially under Russia’s control. According to the British secret service, the Russian leadership no longer seems to believe that there will soon be greater successes there – and sees the appointment of Melitopol as the “capital” as an indication.
At the beginning of March, Russia issued a decree designating the Ukrainian city of Melitopol, which was occupied by its troops, as the “capital of the Zaporizhia region”. As always, President Vladimir Putin and his allies are the only ones who recognize such injunctions. Internationally, they are largely ignored, since it is still Ukrainian territory that was illegally occupied in a war of aggression and “annexed” by Russia. However, the British secret service sees an important finding behind the appointment of Melitopol: an admission by the Russian side.
Because for the Russian invaders, a much larger city is actually of greater importance and thus chosen to become the “capital” of the region: the important industrial center Zaporizhia with its around 700,000 inhabitants. Russia-appointed “administrator” Yevgeny Balitsky said the decree on Melitopol was a temporary measure until the city of Zaporizhia was controlled by Russia. This is around 35 kilometers from the current front line and has not yet been occupied.
LONDON: Putin knows he won’t achieve his big goals any time soon
According to British intelligence, the fact that a few weeks ago Melitopol was named the “capital” instead is “probably a tacit admission within the Russian system that it is highly unlikely that its forces will capture the major targets previously planned in the near future”. Along with Luhansk, Donetsk and Cherson, Zaporizhia is one of the regions that Putin wants to have annexed as part of the Russian Federation on September 30, 2022. The population voted in favor of it in referendums. However, these are not recognized worldwide and are seen as sham referendums. Since Putin’s announcement, Ukrainian troops have been able to liberate some areas and cities, including Kherson.
In addition, the Kremlin troops and the Wagner mercenary group have only had minimal successes and suffered heavy casualties during their offensive in recent weeks. Hundreds of their attacks have been repelled, not only in Zaporizhia. The invaders specifically targeted the city of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region and were able to capture the eastern part of the city. Wuhledar is also hard fought. Because of the many casualties and lack of supplies of ammunition and personnel, the Russian side is not expected to achieve any major successes in the coming weeks.
Ukrainian counter-offensive could start in Zaporizhia
However, the weakened Wagner mercenary force had announced that it would sign around 30,000 new fighters by mid-May. The Ukrainian side is also struggling with losses and a lack of ammunition, but will soon receive more tanks and fighter jets from the West. There are also debates about larger shipments of ammunition. A NATO employee recently put the ratio of dead and wounded on the Russian side at 1:3 in the “Guardian”. Between 300 and 400 Russian fighters would lose their lives every day. In addition, there would be 900 to about 1200 injured.
The exact timing of Ukraine’s counteroffensive is still unclear. This could happen in a timely manner. According to the “Guardian” report, according to the NATO view, the Russian side most likely fears an offensive in the north of Luhansk or south of the city of Zaporizhia, where the Russians have occupied the nuclear power plant of the same name. Most recently, the emergency power supply had been interrupted there several times due to fighting nearby.