Michel Barnier is perceived as potentially instigating a censure motion, with National Rally representatives asserting that President Macron may need to resign if the government collapses. The RN critiques Barnier’s budget for failing to shift away from Macron’s policies, highlighting unresolved issues like pensions and rising costs. Concerns about a government censure’s financial implications arise, but assurances are made regarding civil service payments. The Prime Minister faces pressure from the RN and potential collaboration with the left, complicating his political landscape.
Michel Barnier is seen as ‘creating the conditions for a censure,’ as noted by Sébastien Chenu, the vice-president of the National Rally (RN), ahead of a crucial meeting between the Prime Minister and Marine Le Pen. Another RN deputy even suggested that Emmanuel Macron might need to resign if the government were to be overthrown. Chenu made these remarks during an interview on LCI.
Political Dynamics and Budget Concerns
“We do not buy political opponents with trinkets,” Chenu stated, emphasizing that minor adjustments in Barnier’s budget won’t alter the overarching political strategy. “What we seek is a decisive break from Emmanuel Macron’s policies, a shift that Barnier has yet to commit to, which is evident in his budget proposals,” he added, highlighting key areas of contention.
Chenu pointed out various issues that remain unresolved, including ‘pensions, the mandatory unpaid days of work, rising electricity costs, and France’s increased financial contributions to the European Union.’ He also criticized the lack of savings on government bureaucracy and immigration policies, insisting that the RN’s suggestions have been largely ignored.
Addressing Censure and Its Implications
When questioned about the potential repercussions of a government censure on the budget, which some fear could lead to a financial crisis, government spokesperson Maud Bregeon mentioned a possible ‘Greek scenario.’ Chenu responded, “We must not frighten the French people unnecessarily.” He explained that if a budget is not passed, the National Assembly could implement a special law to ensure civil servants are paid and the economy continues to function, preventing what is known as a ‘shutdown.’
“We are responsible individuals aware of the consequences of a censure,” he continued. “The President of the Republic has several paths to consider: he could retain the current Prime Minister, appoint a new one, or even resign if no alternative solutions are available. Initiating a referendum could also provide a way for him to exit gracefully,” Chenu outlined.
Philippe Ballard, another RN deputy, mentioned the possibility of President Macron resigning if the government were to collapse. “We are not explicitly calling for his resignation, but he should take responsibility. This could be one of the options available to him,” he suggested. With the likelihood of invoking a 49.3 (a mechanism allowing the government to adopt a text without a vote, barring a motion of censure), Barnier is scheduled to meet with heads of parliamentary groups, starting with Le Pen.
Without a majority in the National Assembly, where the left has significantly altered its budget proposal now under Senate review, the Prime Minister faces escalating censure threats from the far-right party. The combination of RN votes with those from the New Popular Front could lead to the government’s downfall.
Additionally, Barnier must navigate the challenges posed by his ‘common base,’ including the macronist EPR group led by Gabriel Attal, which is firmly against any increases in labor costs.