(Boursier.com) — THE TREND
Little change on the Parisian market at the start of the week. The CAC40 remains close to its historic highs, up 0.03% to 8,167 points at midday. If the slowdown in inflation in the euro zone was confirmed in February, the indices should not move too much between now and Wednesday evening and the Fed’s monetary policy decision. While there is little doubt about the status quo, the market will be particularly attentive to the evolution of dot plots, i.e. the expectations of FOMC members in terms of rates. After the latest inflationary surges, Goldman Sachs only anticipates a rate cut of 75 basis points this year compared to 100 points previously, while JP Morgan has reduced its forecast in this area from 125 to 75 points as well. Still on the monetary policy front, the Bank of Japan will be particularly watched tomorrow as it should put an end to the era of negative rates in the archipelago.
On the value side, Alstom stands out, boosted by an analyst rating. On the oil market, the barrel of Brent is still gaining almost 1% above $86 in London. Finally, on the currency front, the euro remains close to $1.09 against the greenback while Bitcoin is moving around $68,000 on Coindesk.
RISING VALUES
* Alstom climbs 8.7% to 13.4 euros. It must be said that Deutsche Bank has raised its recommendation on the issue to ‘buy’, estimating that “the worst is now behind the group”. Management will provide more details in May on its debt reduction program, which could create a ‘short squeeze’ while the stock is one of the most sold in Europe, says the broker. The dilution resulting from a possible capital increase and the risks of executing the project are now well understood, with the stock down 54% year-on-year and trading at a discount of around 40 to 50% compared to peers. With the stabilization of WCR indicators, the broker sees significant upside potential on both margins and FCF.
Quoting…
* Houses of the world rose 3.8% to 4.7 euros at the start of the week in Paris, remaining in demand after its annual publication. Following contact with management, Oddo BHF explains that in a difficult context, management has initiated an “Inspire Everyday” transformation plan aimed at restoring business growth and improving FCF generation which should reach a cumulative amount of 100 ME over the period 2024-2026 (vs 27.4 ME in 2023). For 2024, management has not given any objectives but the broker understands that the first part of the year should remain under pressure (change in turnover probably identical to that observed in 2023) before recovering in H2. In this context, the analyst reiterates his ‘neutral’ opinion with a target lowered from 6.5 to 5 euros, obtained using stock market comparables.
* Valneva (+2.3% to 3.5 euros) has concluded an agreement with the American funds specializing in the health sector Deerfield Management Company and OrbiMed aiming to defer the start date of repayment of its loan by 18 months. The repayment of the first tranche of 100 million dollars will now begin in January 2026 instead of July 2024. The end of repayment of the first tranche of the loan is maintained in the first quarter of 2027. The terms of repayment of the second tranche of 100 million dollars remain unchanged.
* Hoffmann Green Cement Technologies takes 1.7% to 9.1 euros after its annual publication. For a significant increase in 2023 turnover (6.0 ME vs. 2.2 ME) and higher than the initial objective of 4.5 ME, EBITDA stands at -5.2 ME compared to -6 .6 ME in 2022. Current Operating Income reached -8.5 ME.
* Airbus advances 0.7% to 163.9 euros. Rumors have been multiplying in recent days. The latest comes from South Korea where Korean Air Lines would be on the verge of purchasing around twenty A350 planes. The agreement could be announced as early as this week, even if it is not final and could still fall through depending on the outcome of the company’s Board of Directors meeting on March 21, say the sources from ‘Bloomberg’. Korean Air is also considering adding more A321neo single-aisle aircraft to its fleet, one of the sources said.
FALLING VALUES
* Kering (-0.9% to 422.5 euros) denies any interest in the British department store chain Selfridges. While ‘The Telegrap’ reported over the weekend that the luxury group and the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) were interested in taking over Austrian real estate company Signa’s stake in Selfridges, Kering qualified the information as of “totally unfounded” in a statement sent to the ‘Agefi-Dow Jones’ agency. According to the British newspaper, Signa’s stake would be valued at around £2 billion.