THE TREND
(Boursier.com) — Since Wednesday, the gaps have been considerable from the opening between the publications which met the expectations of investors and those which failed… This morning again, the sorting carried out was consistent with in particular Valeo and Ubisoft which are soaring but Sanofi and Rémy Cointreau mistreated.
The drop of more than 15% in the pharmaceutical group is strongly influencing the CAC40 today since Sanofi remains the fifth largest capitalization in the index, now quite far behind TotalEnergies. A CAC40 down 0.5% around 6,850 points in the middle of the day, despite a slightly positive opening, while Sanofi shares were reserved for decline…
In addition to the results publications, the main event of the day will be the publication at 2:30 p.m. of the PCE inflation index in the United States. This measure of inflation favored by the Federal Reserve will be important in determining the future trajectory of rates across the Atlantic as the American economy was stronger than expected in the third quarter. The Fed will make its next monetary policy decision on November 1. Yesterday, the status quo of the European Central Bank was accompanied by a relatively firm speech from Christine Lagarde.
RISING VALUES
* Vinci rose by more than 2% this Friday to 102.9 euros, while the group’s turnover for the 3rd quarter of 2023 amounted to €18.3 billion, up 9% at actual structure, +8% at comparable structure, compared to the 3rd quarter of 2022. This trend confirms the dynamism of activities, both in France and internationally. Over the first 9 months of the year, consolidated turnover reached €50.6 billion, representing organic growth of 10.4%. Building on the solid performance achieved at the end of September 2023, the group confirms that it envisages further growth in its turnover and operating profit for the entire financial year, however on a more modest scale than that observed in 2022.
* Valeo is one of the great satisfactions of the day in Paris. The automotive supplier gained 6% to 12.4 euros after the confirmation of its annual guidance and the announcement of quarterly turnover up 4% at constant scope and exchange rates, supported by the increase in automobile production in its main regions. The group reiterated its target for 2023 turnover of between 22 and 23 billion euros and an operating margin of between 3.2 and 4%.
* Seb climbed by almost 7% to 93 euros this Friday, while the group achieved a turnover of 5,532 ME over the first 9 months of the year, up 3.9% at exchange rate and scope. constant and down slightly by 0.5% in published data). In the 3rd quarter, the group confirmed its recovery with a turnover of €1,920 million, representing an organic increase of 8.9% (+1.4% in published data). This performance is in line with the rebound trajectory envisaged by the Group at the start of the year and supports its ambition for organic growth of around 5% of its turnover for the whole of 2023.
* Ubisoft (+9%) confirmed its forecasts of strong growth in net bookings and non-IFRS operating income of around €400 million for the 2023-2024 financial year, without pulling out all the stops initially planned during the 4th quarter of the current financial year. The company has decided to launch this other big game in the financial year 2024-2025.
FALLING VALUES
* Sanofi plunged 15.4% to 85 euros, its biggest daily fall since 1997. In the third quarter, the laboratory reported a drop of 10.4% in its operating income from activities, to 4.028 billion euros, for a net turnover of €11.964 billion (+3.2% at CER). The EPS of the activities is 2.55 euros, down 11.5% based on published data and 2.1% at CER, including the loss of exclusivity of Aubagio. The consensus was forecasting activity EPS of $2.63 for sales of €12.09 billion. The company confirmed that it expects an increase of around 5% in its activity EPS in 2023, excluding currency effects. The latter should nevertheless decrease between 1 and 4% in 2024 taking into account a higher expected tax rate and the increase in research and development expenses before rebounding strongly from 2025. Sanofi has also announced that it is considering listing of its Consumer Health business from the fourth quarter of next year, as it seeks to boost the development of new drugs. “Sanofi is studying possible separation scenarios, but believes that the route most likely to be taken would be that of an operation on the capital markets through the creation of a listed company with its headquarters in Paris,” the lab said. The timetable aims to maximize value creation and reward Sanofi shareholders and the operation will be subject to consultation with social partners, Sanofi underlined.
* Rémy Cointreau fall of 11% to 105 euros, sanctioned after its big warning on results. Citing the deterioration of market conditions, management now forecasts a decline in its 2023-2024 turnover (in organic data) of between 15% and 20%, compared to a previously forecast of stable revenues. He is also aiming for a “controlled” decline in the current operating margin in organic data, whereas he previously saw it stable.
* Fnac Darty lost 3.3% to 19.7 euros, sanctioned after its warning on its profitability. The distributor of cultural products revealed a quarterly turnover of 1.84 billion euros, down 0.5% in published data and 0.1% in comparable data while the market environment is still impacted by inflationary pressures. Driven mainly by the growing positive impact of services linked to Darty Max and a more favorable product mix, the Group’s gross margin rate increased by +70 basis points in the 3rd quarter.
* Accor fell slightly by 0.8% to 29.7 euros this Friday, despite the increase in its gross operating surplus objectives for 2023 for the second time this year, the group highlighting the good dynamics of its activity in all its markets . The operator of the Ibis and Novotel hotels now forecasts a gross operating surplus of between 955 and 985 million euros, compared to a previous forecast of 930 to 970 million euros, already revised upwards in July. .The hotel group also revised upwards its revenue per available room (RevPAR) growth forecast and now expects it to be slightly above 20%, compared to a previous target located “in the top of the range of 15 to 20%.
* Air France-KLM drops 1.8% to 10.8 euros. The Franco-Dutch company nevertheless recorded a record operating profit in the third quarter, up 31% to 1.34 billion euros, for a turnover of €8.6 billion (+8.9%), materializing a historic margin of 15.5%. Net profit reached 0.9 billion euros, up 0.5 billion euros compared to last year and further supporting the restoration of the Group’s equity. Despite these excellent results, the consensus, provided by the carrier, was counting on slightly higher accounts since, on average, an operating profit of 1.376 billion euros for revenues of 8.7 billion euros were expected. The net profit was anticipated at 991 ME. Capacity also reached 94% of the pre-pandemic level, below the company’s objective of 95%.
* Xilam collapsed by 57% to 4.55 euros, in turn abandoned after a big warning on its 2024 results and the suspension of its medium-term objectives. The independent production and distribution company for animated programs explains that in a context of an economic model under pressure, American streaming platforms are significantly slowing down their investments in the production of programs aimed at children. They now favor fewer investments, more oriented around world-famous American brands.