Middle East talk at “Lanz”
Guido Steinberg: “Hezbollah has overplayed its hand”
By Marko Schlichting
October 2, 2024, 4:34 a.m
Early on Tuesday evening, Iran made good on its threats and attacked Israel. Israel threatens retaliation. On Tuesday evening, the guests will discuss the current situation in the Middle East with Markus Lanz on ZDF.
“We heard detonations. We heard loud bangs outside, we heard the Iron Dome and Arrow defense systems act and bring down missiles.” ZDF correspondent Dominik Lessmeister describes his impressions from a bunker into which he and his team have retreated in the ZDF talk show “Lanz”.
It’s early Tuesday evening. At around 6:40 p.m. local time, the alarm sirens sounded in Tel Aviv. The ZDF team is currently producing a report for the “Heute” news. When the sirens sounded, they stopped what they were doing and retreated to a bunker, says Lessmeister. People had already been warned of an impending Iranian attack in the early afternoon. They were asked to go home so they could flee to their shelters. It was initially thought that the attack would take place in the next twelve hours, says Lessmeister. Then suddenly everything happened very quickly.
The attack lasted about an hour. Then the all-clear was given. The ZDF team was able to leave the bunker. People in Israel are used to a lot, says Lessmeister. “But I think, especially now, with this escalation, with the Israeli attack on Lebanon, with the killing of Hezbollah chief Nasrallah, I think there is also a great fear here that it will escalate and that the strike will then happen will also be very tough and strong from Iran. And that’s why there was a lot of fear and worry in the air. That’s how I felt,” explains Lessmeister of the situation in Tel Aviv.
Markus Lanz actually wanted to talk about the situation in Lebanon on his talk show on Tuesday evening. The show is usually recorded in the late afternoon. When Israel is attacked by Iran, Lanz cancels the recording of the program. It will be broadcast live. Because now there is fear of a further expansion of the war in the Middle East. The broadcast is still running when Israel announces retaliatory measures.
Steinberg surprised by attack
Israel appears to have repelled most of Iran’s missiles, with support from American destroyers stationed in the Mediterranean. ZDF correspondent Elmar Theveßen reports from the USA that the escalation of the war on Tuesday could also have an impact on the elections in the USA. Many people there are of the opinion that the Biden administration’s policy is too reserved towards Israel. “Many people are demanding that we have to stand by Israel in such a situation,” says Theveßen, “and that’s exactly what is happening. The president and the vice president are in the situation center under the White House and are being kept meticulously informed about the situation, “We were involved this afternoon when the attacks actually took place.” Now we are waiting to see what Israel’s retaliation will be. “The White House is hoping for a small counterattack.”
CDU politician Jens Spahn is also worried. But he points out that the governments of the USA and Germany have committed themselves to Israel’s right to exist.
Islam expert Guido Steinberg at Lanz says he was surprised by the Iranian attack on Israel. He also did not expect the ease with which Israel weakened Hezbollah in Lebanon, which is supported and commanded by Iran. Many people were killed by the explosions of the pagers of the most important Hezbollah officials, and the military communication of the terrorist organization Hezbollah was apparently permanently disrupted. After the death of Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, the terrorist organization is leaderless. It is not in a position to resist Israeli air strikes because Hezbollah only has outdated anti-aircraft missiles.
But the situation is not only serious in Israel. Since the Israeli army attacked Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, the country has been facing a breaking point. Lebanon is run by a government of oligarchs and is economically in ruins. Now up to a million people are on the run there, reports FAZ correspondent Christoph Ehrhardt from Lebanon. Shelters like those in Israel are not available in Lebanon. People from the south of the country tried to find shelter with their relatives. “The fear is huge,” reports Ehrhardt.
Hezbollah now faces a military superpower
But not just before the Israeli ground offensive that began on Friday. Ehrhardt: “It’s true: Hezbollah has been greatly weakened. But it is still the strongest military force here in the country. And people are afraid that this internal conflict will break out at some point.” Hezbollah is losing control in Lebanon. Their supporters are losing trust because Hezbollah is not protecting them, and many people in Lebanon are tired of the war.
Hezbollah has fired tens of thousands of rockets into the country since October 7th last year, since the terrorist organization Hamas attacked the Israeli civilian population. “But Hezbollah has clearly overplayed its hand,” analyzes Steinberg. “She actually believed that she could shell Israel for almost a whole year and at the same time avoid a major response from Israel.” That went well for a while, especially because of the government of US President Biden. This stopped Israel from killing Hezbollah chief Nasrallah last October. But: “Hezbollah underestimated the pressure to act on the Israeli side. And from my point of view it was completely clear that Israel would do something as soon as the war in Gaza lost its intensity to weaken the organization.” Hezbollah is now facing a military and technological superpower.
Steinberg demands that the West’s task now must be to develop a strategy on how, together with NATO, Israel, important Arab states and the USA, we can defend ourselves against Iran and Hezbollah, which it controls. “But I think we’re a long way from that.”