Middle East War at Maischberger
Roth: Israel should keep Iran in the dark about strategy
April 16, 2024, 4:07 a.m
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After the Iranian air strike on Israel, the situation in the Middle East could escalate. How will Israel behave now? And what should Europe do now? A politician and a Middle East expert discuss this on the ARD talk show Maischberger.
It is still unclear how Israel will behave after the Iranian air strike on Sunday night. The war cabinet met for another meeting in Jerusalem on Monday. There was no result yet. In her ARD talk show, Sandra Maischberger wants to know what could happen next in the Middle East from the chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the Bundestag, Michael Roth from the SPD, and the Middle East expert Kristin Hellberg. She lived in Syria for several years.
Iran’s first direct attack on Israel was a turning point. But Roth doesn’t see the Iranian change in strategy as really difficult. After all, Israel has been indirectly attacked by Iran for years. “Iran has blanketed the entire Near and Middle East with terrorists,” says Roth. Hellberg does not want to talk about terrorists in this context. “This trivializes these groups that actually think much more strategically and also pursue their own interests.” That’s why Roth later speaks of terrorists when he means groups like Hamas, Hezbollah or the Houthis in Yemen.
Iran and its allies are united by one goal: the destruction of Israel, explains Roth. And Israel showed itself vulnerable in the attack by Hamas terrorists on October 7th. Roth: “It must now be a matter of deterrence for Israel so that something like this never happens again. They have now been able to repel this terrible attack, but in the end the Israelis’ great concern remains whether this was really the last attack or was it just that “Entering further escalation emanating from Iran?”
The Middle East expert has an answer to this: “Iran has no interest in a direct conflict, neither with Israel nor with the USA.” With its attack, Iran has shown its willingness to move from being a background puppeteer to an active political war party. Hellberg: “Nevertheless, Saturday’s attack was so calculated and announced, above all through the region, through the Arab neighbors, who then probably passed it on to the USA, that these 300 drones and cruise missiles could be intercepted. The message was clear Signal, we’re attacking massively, that’s what we can do.” But Iran has no interest in a direct war, because the regime could only lose.
What can Israel do now?
If Kristin Hellberg is right, Israel could theoretically let the matter rest. The expert cannot say whether it reacts like this. Israel has several options, she says: “Israel can continue as before, which is attacks on Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Hamas officials, Hezbollah commanders in Lebanon, in Syria, in Iraq. Israel has been doing that for years.” Israel could also carry out targeted intelligence operations on nuclear facilities inside Iran.
“What the more radical factions within the Netanyahu government want is a massive blow to remove Hezbollah from the border with Israel once and for all and to violate and existentially threaten this Iranian regime.” That would be the escalation that many politicians feared. Ultimately, according to Hellberg, Israel could take advantage of the current situation and, together with neighboring Arab states, forge “a strategic alliance to contain Iran.” What steps Israel will ultimately take depends on who prevails in the war cabinet and in the Netanyahu government. In any case, Israel in particular benefited from Iran’s escalation.
Michael Roth has another idea: “I recommend leaving it at a so-called strategic ambiguity. Why should Israel now clearly declare that there is no counterattack? Israel must be a country that seeks to destroy Israel, “To murder Jewish lives leaves us in uncertainty.”
The West’s task is to fulfill Israel’s need for security. To achieve this, we should work more closely with the moderate Arab states, the European Union should put the Revolutionary Guards on the sanctions list, and Germany should send a signal and close down organizations loyal to the regime, such as the Islam Center in Hamburg. It is important “that there is no tolerance here against this anti-Israel policy of the mullah regime. That would at least help to make it clear: There is a reversal in the moderate, diplomatic Iran policy of the West, the European Union and the United States of America, Germany and Great Britain. That’s what I’m promoting.” It is important that it is about the people of Israel.
Criticism of SPD politician Özoguz
The Deputy President of the Bundestag, Aydan Özoguz, caused heavy criticism with a post on X on Sunday night. In it she first explained that she was concerned about the people in Ukraine and Israel who had to suffer because of the wars. She then asked the question: “Why did this situation have to be provoked? Bombing of the Iranian embassy further endangered the Middle East.” This went directly to Israel. She has since deleted the post. Nevertheless, she was criticized for this, including from her own party: she accused Israel of having provoked the Iranian attack. Her party colleague Michael Roth also reacted angrily: “I definitely don’t see it the same way as my colleague. But I would like to talk to her personally about it. We need to talk about it here.”