Migration, terrorism, uranium
What the coup in Niger means for Europe
08/01/2023, 4:55 p.m
After the coup in Niger, Germany and its international partners increased the pressure on the new military rulers in the West African country. Funds for development cooperation are on hold. France, the EU, the African Union and the West African confederation ECOWAS are also threatening the putsch generals with sanctions – ECOWAS even with violence. The nervousness of the international community shows that the crisis in Niger could have far-reaching consequences for the region and also for Europe.
Is there a new migration movement towards Europe?
Niger – more than three times the size of Germany – is one of the most important transit countries for African migrants heading for Europe. Many people are fleeing the neighboring countries of Mali, Burkina Faso and Nigeria from the Islamist terrorist militias active in the region. An important route leads across the Niger to Libya and Algeria. Since taking office in April 2021, the pro-Western, reform-minded and now ousted President Mohamed Bazoum has been a key EU ally. The EU has been cooperating with Niger since 2015 – primarily to block the critical migration route from the Nigerien desert city of Agadez to Libya. If the new military junta no longer honors these agreements, the European Union’s strategy to curb migration across the Mediterranean could collapse, says Konrad Adenauer Foundation Sahel expert Ulf Laessing. According to the German Development Ministry, 150,000 people are already fleeing across the Niger to Europe every year. With around 26 million inhabitants, Niger itself is one of the poorest countries in the world.
Why is the West losing influence across the Sahel region?
The former colonial power France has been involved in the fight against terrorism in the Sahel region for years. With the “Barkhane” military operation, France wanted to take action against the spread of Islamist terrorist militias in the desert states of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, but also in Mauritania and Chad. Nevertheless, the region has developed into a center of Islamist terrorism in recent years. Some of the Sahel militias have pledged allegiance to the Islamic State or al-Qaeda. In Mali, in addition to Operation Barkhane, the UN peacekeeping mission MINUSMA was also supposed to ensure stability in Niger’s neighboring country.
These missions did not have lasting success. Rather, over time, foreign troops were seen in those countries as “part of the problem,” as the military junta in Mali put it. After the military took power in Mali and Burkina Faso, the UN blue helmets and French soldiers are no longer wanted. The UN – and thus also the Bundeswehr – must leave Mali by the end of 2023. The two Sahel countries have long been oriented towards Russia and its Wagner Group. Their boss Yevgeny Prigozhin, for his part, lures with the promise to push back the jihadists – only 1,000 of his men are needed in Niger, he recently wrote on Telegram.
Until recently, Niger was considered one of the West’s last allies in the region, and under Bazoum’s government had made efforts to become a stable partner. The Bundeswehr maintains an air transport base in Niamey for military engagement in West Africa, where around 100 German soldiers work. Combat swimmers from the German Navy have been involved in training Nigerien special forces in the border area with Mali in recent years. At the end of 2022, the EU also decided on a military mission in Niger. So far, the Bundeswehr has only provided a few soldiers for this three-year EU mission, who are in the capital Niamey. It is unclear whether this partnership can now be continued.
What happens to the Germans in the country?
Today, Tuesday, France announced that it intends to evacuate its citizens from the West African country by plane. Other Europeans could also leave the country this way, it said. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock thanked her French counterpart for the fact that the government in Paris also wants to fly German nationals out of Niger. On the German side, however, no evacuation plans were initially activated on Monday. The Federal Foreign Office assumes that there are a high double-digit number of German citizens in the country who do not work for the Bundeswehr or the embassy. The Foreign Office advised all German nationals in Niamey to accept the French offer to leave the country and officially issued a travel warning.
It is still questionable, however, whether Germany will withdraw its soldiers from the Sahel state. After an ultimatum from the West African group of states, the situation in Niger could escalate. Then Germany would have to withdraw its soldiers and evacuate the airlift base, says CDU foreign policy expert Roderich Kiesewetter. However, the Ministry of Defense does not yet see any compelling reason for a withdrawal. The base is currently playing a strategically important role, as the planned withdrawal of soldiers from Mali is to take place there. The removal of material from Gao in Mali via Niamey was actually supposed to start in large numbers as early as August.
Why is Niger economically important for Europe?
In particular, the former colonial power France has a great economic interest in the raw materials in Niger. According to Sahel expert Alain Antil, Niger has been the country’s fifth largest supplier of uranium over the past ten years. Only Namibia produces more uranium in Africa. But not only France benefits from the large uranium deposits in Niger. According to the EURATOM supply agency, the entire EU covers almost a quarter of its uranium requirements with imports from Niger. The agency is an EU organization that aims to ensure that European countries are supplied with material for generating nuclear power. In addition to uranium, Niger also has gold and coal deposits.
What does the coup mean for the region?
The West African community of states ECOWAS had sharply criticized the coup in Niger. The federal government includes 15 countries in West Africa that are striving for a single market and monetary union. Members called for President Bazoum’s release within a week after an emergency meeting on Sunday. The threat of violence was surprisingly severe if the putschists did not comply with the ultimatum. ECOWAS also threatened legal prosecution of the military junta. It is unclear whether ECOWAS is actually aiming for a military intervention in Niger. However, there is great fear that with the West’s withdrawal from Niger, the jihadists could advance further and even gain a foothold in the comparatively stable countries of the ECOWAS group such as Ghana or Côte d’Ivoire.
Meanwhile, Niger’s neighbors Burkina Faso and Mali warned the international community, of which they are members themselves, against military intervention. Any military intervention against Niger would be tantamount to a declaration of war against Burkina Faso and Mali, according to a joint statement by the two transitional governments published on Monday. Military intervention could have catastrophic consequences that could destabilize the entire region. The military had also seized power in Mali and Burkina Faso.