There are many ways to approach the midterm elections, held in the United States on Tuesday 8 November. By the natural pendulum of politics: they are generally unfavorable to the party in power. Republicans hope to regain control of the House of Representatives, and possibly the Senate, which will be played out in a handful of key states. If that happened, the White House would be transformed for two years into a citadel, subject to investigations launched by the right. But caution is called for: since August, five by-elections as well as a referendum in Kansas on abortion have enabled the Democrats to do well, to everyone’s surprise. And the spectacular weight of early voting – already 40 million ballots – is not really taken into account in the polls.
This is also the first post-Covid ballot, with Joe Biden announcing in mid-September that “the pandemic [était] finished ». This has been non-existent in national debates, but it has played a major role in spreading hostility and paranoia on the right against federal pundits and elites. The dominant subject is the economic question. A deep pessimism reigns over the orientation of the country, which the Democrats seemed to downplay, wrongly. Inflation (8.5% over one year) is a rare transpartisan subject, hitting the most fragile households more in proportion.
And then there is the longer story, the reflection of America in its mirror. Rarely have the polls seemed so uncertain, beyond a large turnout, announced by the early vote. But these midterms cannot be reduced to a question of possible parliamentary alternation. Two certainties are already essential and do not depend on a few seats in favor of the reds (Republicans) or the blues (Democrats). The first concerns the return to normality embodied by Joe Biden in the exercise of power, the restoration of presidential dignity and the proper functioning of institutions.
After the Trump era, this correction is indisputable. But it seems extraordinarily fragile when it is limited to the executive power alone. All around, the toxic particles have intensified in two years. “The truth is Joe Biden didn’t win with 81 million votes, and if you think he did, you’re the conspiracy theorist”, explained Kari Lake a few days ago, in a rhetorical reversal which testifies to the confusion maintained. Candidate for governor in Arizona, she is sometimes cited as a possible running mate of Donald Trump in 2024.
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