The new police crime statistics are irritating with a significant increase in foreign suspects. If you take a closer look, you can see that the situation is not as bad as it seems at first glance. But the problems don’t go away easily either.
In the new police crime statistics (PKS), the figures on foreign crime are particularly irritating. The number of non-German suspects rose by an impressive 17.8 percent to a good 920,000. The increase is less dramatic if you exclude crimes that only foreigners can commit, such as illegal entry or violations of residence rights. Even then, the increase is still double-digit and amounts to 13.5 percent. The total number of crimes also grew, by 4.4 percent, excluding crimes related to entry and residence. Such figures suggest that something is slipping away here, that foreigners in Germany have become significantly more criminal.
But is that really true? If you take a closer look at the PKS, there are some limitations that make the picture appear a little less dramatic. Nevertheless, even when classified seriously, the data by no means resolves itself happily. At the same time, they show where you can start to get the numbers down again.
First of all, to put things into perspective: The number of reported crimes, at around 5.6 million, is by no means a new high. Over the past 30 years, this number has fluctuated again and again, usually it was significantly higher – and with a lower total population than today. So there is by no means a state of emergency. Against this background, SPD politician Faeser may have been right when she said that Germany is still one of the safest countries in the world.
Three reasons for the increase
An important reason for the overall increase is that criminals also returned to normality after the pandemic. This applies equally to German and foreign criminals. Last year was the first year since the pandemic in which there were no more restrictive measures, said BKA President Holger Münch at the presentation of the PKS in Berlin. You therefore have to compare the numbers with 2019, i.e. the last year before the Corona outbreak.
Seen this way, for example, the documented increase in residential burglaries is not that alarming because it is still below the numbers from 2019, as Münch explained. In contrast, there are increases in violent crime and shoplifting that go beyond “normalization” after the pandemic. And the total number of crimes cannot be explained solely by this, as Münch said.
The BKA named two further factors for this: economic and social burdens and migration. The former have to do with inflation and, especially for children and young people, with psychological consequences as a result of the Corona measures. “The more people perceive economic pressure, the higher the numbers and number of suspects are,” said Münch.
According to the BKA, growing immigration is also partly responsible for the significant increase of 13.5 percent in non-German suspects. “If the number of non-German population increases, the number of non-German suspects also increases,” explained the BKA President. But that’s not all. It is actually the case that migrants commit crimes more often than locals. This can also be explained without foaming at the mouth.
There are factors that make criminal behavior more likely and these apply more strongly to foreigners and especially recent immigrants. Age and gender, for example. Young men are seen as more willing to violate norms and become criminals. Other factors include where you live, education, social situation, i.e. poverty, and also things like experience of violence in your home country.
If you now consider that many young men have come to Germany in recent years and also have little money in their pockets and live in big cities, these factors certainly apply. This can be assumed, according to the BKA, which also referred to the living situations in initial reception centers, where fights occur more frequently among young men than elsewhere. Münch emphasized that crime often takes place between foreigners. The number of foreign victims also skyrocketed.
Ukrainians less criminal, North Africans more
For example, the fact that the Ukrainians who fled to Germany have below-average levels of criminality can also be explained in this way. According to Münch, 60 percent of them are women, who usually do not live in initial reception centers and who also receive more money than asylum seekers through direct receipt of citizen’s benefit. This means that three risk factors are far less likely to have an impact. Men from North Africa, on the other hand, are above average criminal, but not people from Syria and Afghanistan, says Münch.
It should be noted that all foreign suspects are listed in the PKS, including tourists, travelers, people without a residence permit and others. How many there are exactly is not clear from the statistics. This is a distortion effect, said Münch. However, this should not call into question the upward trend.
But if the factors that lead to more crime are now known, the adjustment screws are also known: integration, education and limiting or controlling immigration as well as expelling people with no prospect of staying. The decline in inflation and an upswing in the economy should also help. Depending on the political tone, these instruments will be weighted differently. There are already attempts to limit illegal immigration, such as border controls or the plan at EU level to decide on asylum at the EU’s external borders in the future.
On the other hand, there is a need for immigration due to the shortage of skilled workers. The government is therefore trying to control migration with the new immigration law and points system. People with professional qualifications should have an easier time coming to Germany than people with little education who have little chance of entering the job market. Work permits for asylum seekers or further training can also be an issue. However, the relevant regulations have already been relaxed; the problem is often the lack of training. So there is an instrument box, but it is also clear: no matter what you do – it will be expensive, it will take a long time and there will be no improvement at the push of a button.