Mullahs worried, opponents celebrate
No sign of life from Iranian President Raisi
May 20, 2024, 1:34 a.m
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Many hours after the alleged crash of a government helicopter, the fate of Iranian President Raisi remains uncertain. While Turkey is sending drones to help search parties and believers are praying in Tehran, opponents of the regime are already celebrating the death of the hated mullah.
After an accident involving a helicopter with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hussein Amirabdollahian on board, there is still no sign of life from those involved in the accident. According to state media, 65 rescue teams searched for the scene of the accident overnight in the East Azerbaijan province in the northwest of the country. Poor rain and wind made the search in the mountainous region difficult. A Turkish drone also flew into Iranian airspace to support the search operation.
There were nine people on board the helicopter, including the governor and the Friday preacher from the provincial capital Tabris. The 63-year-old Raisi was returning from a meeting with the President of neighboring Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, on Sunday afternoon together with Foreign Minister Amirabdollahian. Together they inaugurated a dam there.
As Iranian media reported, the scene of the accident is near Jolfa – more than 600 kilometers from the capital Tehran, close to the border with Azerbaijan. In addition to the rescue teams, the Iranian armed forces were also involved in the search. Meanwhile, Iran’s cabinet met for an emergency meeting. First Vice President Mohammed Mochber chaired the late evening meeting. According to protocol, he would be the head of government in the event of Raisi’s death.
Concern among Raisi’s supporters, joy among opponents of the regime
In Raisi’s hometown of Mashhad in the northeast of the country, dozens of believers gathered at the central pilgrimage shrine, state radio reported. Followers also flocked to mosques in other parts of the country, such as the religious stronghold of Qom. There was great concern that something might have happened to Raisi and Foreign Minister Hussein Amirabdollahian.
On social media, however, many Iranians openly expressed their joy and gloating over the accident and wished the helicopter occupants death. Pictures of fireworks in Tehran also made the rounds. Iran’s government warned its own people not to follow news from abroad.
Iran’s air force is considered to be very outdated and its modernization is making little progress in the face of strict international sanctions. Many planes and helicopters date from before the Islamic Revolution of 1979, when the country had close relations with the United States. Serious accidents and crashes occur again and again.
Repressive politics
Raisi was sworn in as Iran’s new president in August 2021. The arch-conservative cleric officially became the successor to Hassan Rouhani, who was no longer allowed to run after two terms in office. As the leading candidate of the political hardliners and the preferred candidate and protégé of the religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Raisi won the presidential election in June with almost 62 percent of the vote. His government has been criticized for years for its repressive policies and the economic crisis. Iran has been in the headlines again and again recently, and recently there was even a threat of a regional war with its arch-enemy Israel.
During Raisi’s term in office, the Islamic Republic deepened its economic and military cooperation with China and Russia, and relations with the West cooled, among other things because of the dispute over the domestic nuclear program. The West also accused Iran of massive human rights violations. Nevertheless, just a few days ago there were again reports of new, indirect talks in the Gulf state of Oman with the USA.
Raisi’s death is likely to trigger a power struggle
Raisi, who was born in Mashhad in 1960, is considered an influential but weak president within the system. Raisi worked in the judiciary for over three decades and was appointed head of the judiciary in 2019. In his previous role as public prosecutor, he is said to have been responsible for numerous arrests and executions of political dissidents in 1988, which earned him the title “Butcher of Tehran” from opponents. According to the constitution, Raisi is head of government, Khamenei is more powerful as head of state and has the final say in all strategic matters. Experts had meanwhile also treated Raisi as a possible successor to Khamenei, who turned 85 in April. In terms of domestic policy – even if criticism from the younger generation is now increasingly directed against the entire system of the Islamic Republic – Raisi was constantly under pressure. Most recently, the government pushed forward its controversial course in pursuing compulsory headscarves.
If Raisi and Amirabdollahian were killed in the accident, the Islamic Republic could be plunged into a domestic and foreign policy crisis. Iran’s foreign minister in particular has been more in the public eye since the beginning of the Gaza war and has been a guest of allies on numerous trips. It will also be difficult for the state leadership to quickly replace the head of government due to a lack of alternatives.
In the event of death, a violent power struggle is likely to break out, wrote Iran expert Arash Azizi in an analysis for the US magazine “The Atlantic”. Raisi’s passivity has encouraged challengers among the hardliners. They would see his weak presidency as an opportunity, Azizi wrote. “The death of Raisi would change the balance of power between factions within the Islamic Republic.”