Mysterious Balloon
China provokes the US – or not?
By Volker Petersen
2/3/2023 3:47 p.m
A Chinese balloon causes a stir in the United States. What does Beijing want to achieve with this? Americans are wondering the same thing. They assume a spy mission. China, on the other hand, claims it’s just a misguided weather balloon.
Apparently he is not dangerous and he will hardly snatch secrets from the Americans – the alleged spy balloon from China, which was discovered over the US state of Montana, is a mystery. What is his purpose? Pentagon officials said the Chinese should already have the information the balloon could collect. Like the US and some other states, they have spy satellites that also monitor North America. If it is a spy balloon at all.
In any case, China asserted on Friday that it was just a weather balloon that had deviated from its route and apologized for the “inadvertent intrusion” into US airspace. That cannot be ruled out – especially in view of the largely senseless nature of this type of espionage, which the Americans have stated. On the other hand, if the Chinese were actually on a reconnaissance mission, they would hardly admit it. Then they would probably advance a statement like that of the weather balloon.
After all: With such balloons you can actually spy, even if it’s rather the very old school. The China expert at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, Craig Singleton, told Reuters the type of balloon was used frequently by the Soviet Union and the US during the Cold War. It is a comparatively inexpensive form of espionage. Beijing should have expected this balloon to be discovered immediately. The United States monitors its airspace meticulously.
What we know about this balloon is that it flies at an altitude of 24 to 37 kilometers and therefore poses no danger to air traffic. The US Department of Defense, the Pentagon, sent fighter jets into the vicinity, but then decided against shooting them down – the risk that falling parts could injure people on the ground was incalculable. It is unknown where exactly the balloon came from in China. It was first sighted over a group of islands off Alaska, then a Canadian agency reported it until it reached the north of the United States.
Base with nuclear missiles
The Wall Street Journal speculates as to why the Chinese might be interested in rural Montana of all places: In the north of the state there is a military base housing 150 ICBMs equipped with nuclear warheads.
Against the background of tensions between Washington and Beijing, it also seems plausible that Beijing would allow itself to be carried away by such a provocation. The problems between the two powers have not only existed since ex-President Donald Trump hammered into the American crowd that China was the new and most important rival. His predecessor Barack Obama had already begun to align the USA more closely with Asia. The Americans already have a massive military presence there, be it in Japan, South Korea or Guam. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is currently in the Philippines, where he has been given further access for US troops.
The rivalry with China has many facets, the most important being economic and geopolitical. Economically, the USA is trying to make itself less dependent on imports from China and to bring key industries such as the construction of microchips back into its own country. Geopolitically, the struggle for Taiwan plays the biggest role. China claims the island state with its 24 million inhabitants as its own. The US protects the democratic country with arms deliveries and a promise of assistance in the event of a Chinese attack.
It’s about Taiwan, but not only
The US Navy is also present in the region with warships and aircraft carriers. China sees itself at least as a regional leader and also claims large parts of the South China Sea as its own sovereign territory. However, according to international law, the US insists on the freedom of the seas. They demonstrate this again and again, for example by sending their own warships through the Strait of Taiwan – which Beijing in turn sees as a provocation. Most recently, the US destroyer Chung Hoon did so in early January. The visit of high-ranking US politician Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan, who as speaker of the House of Representatives at the time, directly follows the US President and Vice President in the ranking, caused upsets beyond normal.
What does that have to do with the balloon? Perhaps it was intended to be a sign from China that it would be able to reach mainland America. Because if a simple balloon is able to do that, then real weapons would be even more so. For example, the Chinese intercontinental nuclear missile Dongfeng 41, which can fly 12,000 kilometers. It could hit the American mainland with it. China’s first aircraft carrier, the “Fujan”, was launched last summer. However, the colossus is not yet operational.
The balloon is wonderfully suited as a provocation – because it is harmless enough not to cause serious distortions. He’s not dangerous. Anyway, the timing isn’t bad. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is expected in Beijing on Sunday. It is the first time since 2018 that a chief American diplomat has visited China. The visit doesn’t get any easier with the Chinese greeting over Montana. If it wasn’t just a weather balloon.