Nagelsmann’s balance sheet with the master: The “stroke of luck” and the two Bayern faces

After turbulent weeks, calm has returned to Bayern Munich. This is also due to Julian Nagelsmann, who can look back on his first six months at Säbener Straße with positive feelings. But a superstar could become a problem and the real challenges are yet to come.

How well or badly things are going at FC Bayern can often be seen by whether the club’s managers present themselves calmly or tense in public. For example, President Herbert Hainer reacted rather thinly to the loud criticism surrounding the annual general meeting. Last Sunday, in turn, he presented himself in a relaxed and good mood in the Sport1 one-two.

The way he sat on his chair, crossed his legs, put his arm on the backrest – that said a lot about the latest developments. There was not yet a real sporting crisis under the new coach Julian Nagelsmann, although there were also delicate moments.

Next to the square, the topics piled up: Justice anger around Lucas Hernández, the corona debate about five unvaccinated players, related failures and another defeat in Augsburg exacerbated the situation. And so the top game in Dortmund at the beginning of December became the first big key game of the season. Bayern could have given up the top of the table in the Westfalenstadion, but did not. Instead, however, the record champions are now, around two weeks later, nine points ahead of the winter break.

A great start with one flaw

Perhaps that is the main reason that Hainer can talk so relaxed about everything at the moment. This lightness is particularly noticeable to him when Nagelsmann is discussed. In the one-two he described the coach as “an absolute stroke of luck. We are in a very good shape in terms of sport. And Julian Nagelsmann is an excellent representative for FC Bayern. We are glad that we have him.”

One look at the results of the first half of the season is enough to give him a good report card for the sporting field. If it hadn’t been for that 5-0 defeat in Gladbach. An exception? In that form, I guess. And yet that is not all, as the weeks that followed showed. Because from a sporting point of view, the autumn champion presented himself with two different faces. They showed one thing until they were eliminated from the DFB Cup and one afterwards.

The Bayern face before the 0: 5 in Gladbach

In view of the again difficult summer preparation, it was not necessarily to be expected that Nagelsmann would take off immediately. Most of the EM participants only returned shortly before the start of the Bundesliga. Nevertheless, Nagelsmann had set himself ambitious goals. He always emphasized how good the foundation was that his predecessor Hansi Flick had left in Munich. So you shouldn’t expect big changes.

At the same time, however, he wanted to remedy the defensive weakness. Where Nagelsmann sees the cause of the 44 goals conceded last season can only be read from his tactical changes. His approach to a stable defense lies in the positional play of his team – in his own ball possession phases. Instead of spreading the game in almost all areas of the playing field, as was still the case under Flick, Nagelsmann demands that his players position themselves closer.

The wings are only occupied by one player when the ball is in the center – sometimes only one wing is occupied and the other is not. Because of the many red jerseys in the middle, so the idea behind it, the opponents also have to concentrate on defending the center. This in turn leads to space on the wings that can be used in the last third.

It didn’t take Bayern long to get used to this new approach. After a bumpy start in Gladbach (1: 1), they won nine competitive games in a row – and the subsequent 1: 2 home defeat against Frankfurt was due to an unfortunate course of the game. Bayern still impressed with an incredible offensive power, but at the same time defended counter-situations from the opponents more often from the start. Nine goals conceded in the first 14 competitive games were a clear improvement on the Flick time – and even the 60 goals were an improvement that was not thought possible. So unbeatable?

The Bayern face after the 0: 5 in Gladbach

The 0: 5 in Gladbach brought everyone back down to earth. From then on it was more sluggish for the record champions. At least something. Because 33 goals in the last eleven competitive games are still an impressive figure. However, there were again eleven goals conceded in this phase.

And the goals conceded fell according to a similar pattern throughout the first half of the season. If Bayern’s pressing does not work near the ball, there are spaces far away from the ball, in which opponents can quickly find themselves in equal or outnumbered situations. Nagelsmann noted again and again that it was about the willingness of the players to make the decisive meters backwards. Too often, midfielders or attackers relied on residual defense.

The newly introduced, much closer positional play showed one or the other weak point in the second half of the first half of the season. Against deeply defending opponents, for example, Bayern found it difficult to optimally integrate Robert Lewandowski into the attacking game.

Although the Pole has again scored 30 goals in 25 competitive games, he appeared unsatisfied in some phases of the season so far – which could become a problem. Sometimes even the players who otherwise caused a sensation on the flanks were too central, which is why Bayern was no longer able to play a liberating shift. Lewandowski had it even more difficult to find space for himself and dangerous counterattacks of the opponents increased again – especially on the open wings.

Nagelsmann shines as a moderator

But the truth is that Bayern won all six group games in the Champions League despite these small problems and achieved an outstanding interim result in the Bundesliga with 43 points. Especially since they have improved in almost all relevant statistics – for example, they score more goals per game, but also concede fewer. So in the end it is criticism at a very high level.

The fact that none of this was discussed in a great way in the end is also due to the second aspect addressed by Hainer with the coach: In addition to the sporting successes, Nagelsmann is also a good representative of the club. Nagelsmann played a major role in ensuring that the headwinds that arose from the many non-sporting topics did not cause any damage. With wit, charm, in the right moments but also with seriousness, he managed to moderate all of this skillfully.

The positive results certainly helped him. But in the past eight competitive games alone, these were not a sure-fire success. He not only had to do without Joshua Kimmich completely, but also partially without Leon Goretzka, who was also not in good shape. The substitutes Corentin Tolisso and Marcel Sabitzer were also partly out or found it difficult to find their way into the team.

Nagelsmann had a big problem in the control center, of all places. A situation that has plunged many other Bayern coaches into a crisis, at least for a short time. But he managed to stabilize the team. Perhaps that is also the greatest quality of the young trainer: the constant ability to adapt and develop. Leroy Sané’s outstanding performance in a new central role and the recent strong performances by Marc Roca are just two good examples that underline that Nagelsmann has a good knack for team management.

To the author

  • Justin Kraft is a freelance writer and blogger at miasanrot.de.
  • Born in 1993 through the “Generation Kahn”, I came into contact with FC Bayern.
  • Football-socialized with the “Generation lame climbers“, to which he even dedicated a book named after her in 2019.

What’s next

And yet the second half of the season will be extremely exciting. With a nine-point lead, there is actually nothing left to win in the Bundesliga. Bayern are out of the cup. And in the Champions League? Munich certainly doesn’t have to hide there, but towards the end of the first half of the season it became clear again what a few failures or weaknesses in form can do. It also takes a lot of luck to win this competition.

If you only measure Nagelsmann in terms of titles, from now on he can actually only lose. People on Säbener Strasse will be smart enough not to do that. But it is also clear that the performance in the Champions League will have a major impact on whether Hainer and the other responsible persons will be sitting back in their chairs as relaxed at the end of the season.

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