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An estimate from 2021 assumes costs of 20 billion francs. With the location decision, the cost calculations are now becoming more specific. However, it is still unclear whether and how the costs will change.
According to the National Cooperative for the Disposal of Radioactive Waste (Nagra), the construction of the planned deep repository will cost around CHF 20 billion. This sum is to be paid by the nuclear power plant operators. For years they have therefore been paying money into the so-called decommissioning and disposal fund (Stenfo).
With Nagra’s decision to construct the repository in Nördlich Lägern, the plans are now becoming more concrete. But this also raises the question of whether the estimated 20 billion is sufficient for final storage. The nuclear repository is to be built up to 900 meters deep at the site in the municipality of Stadel. Significantly deeper than at the alternative locations, at around 400 meters.
Legend:
The nuclear repository in Nördlich-Läger is to be located in this area: test drilling facility near Stadel/ZH.
Nagra
Deeper construction does not necessarily cause additional costs
But final storage does not necessarily become more expensive because you build deeper, says Simon Löw, professor emeritus for engineering geology at ETH Zurich: “Basically, the deeper you build a tunnel in the Alps, for example, the more complex it is become the circumstances. But that doesn’t have to be the case in every case.”
According to Löw, individual shafts are 900 meters deep instead of just 400 meters. That actually makes these shafts significantly more expensive, but it probably doesn’t play a role for the entire deep geological repository with its kilometers of underground structures.
No speculation about cost development
Swissnuclear, the industry association of nuclear power plant operators, calculated the total costs for the repository based on various models and assumptions. The 20 billion are based on an estimate from 2021. The location in Nördlich Lägern was taken into account, says Swissnuclear on request.
We will now analyze whether the cost calculation needs to be adjusted based on the specific Nagra decision.
Whether it will stay at the 20 billion is still not clear now, with the specific repository location, as Raymond Cron, President of the Decommissioning and Disposal Fund, explains. “Stenfo is currently reviewing the cost study 21. We will now analyze whether the cost calculation needs to be adjusted due to the specific Nagra decision.” Cron did not want to speculate whether the costs will increase.
Criticism for too low risk margins
Fabian Lüscher, head of the nuclear energy department at the Swiss Energy Foundation, expresses fundamental concerns about the cost estimates by Swissnuclear and Stenfo. “From our point of view, the major shortcoming of these cost estimates is that too few risk margins are included.”
Too few risk margins are included.
Lüscher complains that if something goes wrong, too little money could have been set aside. Such scenarios are likely because this is a major project.
There are no comparable values, since it is the first repository in Switzerland. According to Lüscher, however, other large construction projects show that unexpected costs always arise. So more money would have to be set aside by the nuclear power plant operators to finance the phase-out of nuclear energy.
At the end of the year, the decommissioning and waste disposal fund will determine the definitive contributions that the nuclear power plant operators will have to pay. Until then, based on the specific location, a new or more specific calculation will be made of what the phase-out of nuclear energy will cost.