Funny weekend where experts and enthusiasts of geopolitics try to predict the next world war by following live the route of an American Boeing. Will US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s plane stop in Taiwan on her trip to Asia this week? And if so, how will the Chinese military react?
Beijing considers Taiwan, an independent island of 23 million inhabitants, as a rebel province that should be reconquered. On Saturday July 30, China began live ammunition military exercises in the Taiwan Strait.
For her part, Nancy Pelosi clarified the contours of her visit: she will travel to Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Japan. “The trip will be devoted to mutual security, economic partnership and democratic governance”, says the press release from his team, published on Sunday, July 31. But no mention of Taiwan, whose government has not reacted.
“Those who play with fire risk burning themselves to death. Xi Jinping, in conversation with Joe Biden
Not sure, however, that she has given up: the plan to go to Taiwan, revealed by the FinancialTimes July 18, is particularly sensitive, so Nancy Pelosi had so far avoided confirming or denying it, for security reasons.
Beijing seeks to isolate Taiwan by all means
China repeats its warnings: a Foreign Ministry spokesperson promised “ consequences ». On Thursday, during a video chat between the Chinese and US presidents, Xi Jinping warned Joe Biden: “Those who play with fire risk burning themselves to death. » The American president replied that the American position on Taiwan was unchanged. “The United States strongly opposes unilateral efforts to change the status quo and undermine peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. »
The problem is that this status quo is ambiguous, and that it changes over time. The situation of the “Republic of China”, the official name of Taiwan, is a hangover from the flight of the nationalists to the island in 1949 after their defeat against the Communists of Mao Zedong. Most states only officially recognize Beijing, but maintain informal relations with Taipei. Visits from parliamentarians to parliamentarians are common, systematically prompting Chinese protests.
Nancy Pelosi would however be the first president of the Chamber to visit the island since 1997. Since then, China has experienced an exceptional rise in power, and today seeks to isolate Taiwan by all means. Xi Jinping regularly evokes the project of “reunification” of the island with China, “by force if necessary”. For their part, the United States is committed to providing Taiwan with the means to defend itself, but Joe Biden recently assured that the United States would intervene directly, thus clarifying “strategic ambiguity” maintained so far on this subject.
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