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The fronts in the Ukraine conflict remain hardened. Russia and the USA were not prepared to make any commitments in Brussels.
On Monday in Geneva there was still a certain satisfaction in the Russian and American delegations: We are talking to each other again – business-oriented, frankly, if not amicably.
Something went under that kept the rifts wide in the matter. But now at the second meeting on a larger scale, with all thirty NATO members at the table, the tone was sharper. It was not an easy discussion, said NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. But precisely because it is difficult, you have to talk to each other.
For US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman it is simply incomprehensible when powerful Russia claims to feel threatened by the far smaller, militarily much weaker Ukraine. Rather, it is Russia that is provoking a crisis with its troop concentration on the border with Ukraine – another after the annexation of Crimea and the support of the separatists in eastern Ukraine.
No approach in sight
There are neither promises nor indications of the withdrawal of Russian troops called for by NATO. Conversely, the briskly put forward Russian demands for a binding waiver of NATO expansion and the withdrawal of the Alliance’s armed forces from NATO member countries in Eastern Europe are untenable for the West. According to the US chief negotiator, one could not talk about that.
In fact, Russian pressure is for the time being welded together the otherwise often divided NATO. It is unanimously defending Ukraine’s right to decide on its own membership – without Russian veto power. From the Ukrainian point of view, this point is central. Such a free choice is mandatory for every sovereign state.
Do the Russians even want to negotiate?
So there is zero rapprochement between Russia and the West on the central issues. On the other hand, NATO offers Moscow to negotiate other important security issues: more transparency, fewer military maneuvers, a reduction in missile deployments and disarmament in general.
Bloss: Apparently the Russians have not yet decided whether they want to enter into a negotiation process about these things at all. On the other hand, they complain that Moscow’s proposals for de-escalation have not been taken into account. It is not clear what these are. After all, the Russians have not yet agreed to start a negotiation process on arms control and confidence-building measures, but they have not yet refused either.
Vienna with Ukraine as another opportunity
And for the time being, the dialogue process will continue: tomorrow in Vienna at the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the OSCE. The most affected Ukraine will be there for the time being. But after Geneva on Monday and Brussels on Wednesday, it would be almost a miracle if a positive turn occurred on Thursday.
In other words, the crucial question remains: Is Russia now marching into Ukraine, especially since it cannot enforce its core demands on the diplomatic floor?