Leonid Volkov is a confidant of Alexei Navalny and one of the most important voices in the Russian opposition. In his book “Putinland”, the expanded edition of which was recently published, the politician describes how the Russian regime works – a system that, in Volkov’s words, is “on the verge of catastrophe.” The politician, who lives in exile in Lithuania, talks about what his optimism is based on in an interview with ntv.de. But it also answers the questions why it is “nonsense” that the Russian economy is growing and why people those who call for negotiations with Putin are “idiots”.
ntv.de: In the foreword to the new edition of your book “Putinland” you write: “Putin has brought himself and his system to the brink of catastrophe. I am convinced that he and his henchmen will perish in this catastrophe.” But a look at the news shows a different picture.
“Putin’s diagnosis has been known for ten years,” says Leonid Volkov in an interview with ntv.de.
(Photo: picture alliance / SvenSimon)
Leonid Volkov: After the first successes of the Ukrainian army, there were extremely high, unrealistic expectations for the year 2023. Everyone expected a successful offensive and that the Ukrainian army would soon drive to Red Square with Leopards and Abrams. Then these inflated expectations were replaced by disappointment: Everything is terrible for us, but things are looking great for Putin. However, for long-term political planning, one should avoid these emotional extremes and look at the big picture.
And what does a look at the big picture reveal?
That Putin is rather so-so. The most important event of last year was the Prigozhin uprising. Was something like this conceivable in pre-war Russia? Obviously not. The very fact that a crisis of such magnitude could arise shows how things are not going according to plan for Putin and that his degree of control over the situation has decreased. There is no guarantee that such crises will not arise again.
Why is Putin losing control?
He eliminated everyone who dared to give him feedback about the real situation at the front. Not only did he kill Prigozhin and imprison Strelkov, he also fired a number of generals. He has made it clear that he is satisfied with the worldview that Shoigu, Gerasimov and the FSB give him. This leads him to make appropriate decisions: attack regardless of losses and continue the “military special operation” until all objectives are achieved. This will lead to many more victims, but also to new political crises in Russia.
Despite Western sanctions, the Russian economy is expected to have grown in 2023.
That’s nonsense. Yes, the nominal gross domestic product grew by a few percent, but that’s nothing you can spread on bread. A third of the economy is geared towards war. Something is created to be destroyed. Yes, weapons factories work in three shifts, but there are a maximum of a few million people working in this industry. Sure, they’re doing great. A lot of money also goes directly to military members and their families. There are many families where the husband used to bring home 30,000 rubles (the equivalent of about 300 euros – editor’s note) salary at the end of the month, drink and beat his wife. Now he is not at home, no one drinks and beats the wife, and the salary is already 200,000 rubles. And if you’re lucky, he’ll be killed and the woman will get seven million rubles (approx. 71,000 euros). Great! In these two sectors – the defense industry and families of military personnel – wealth has increased many times over. The rest of the economy is completely fucked.
In one interview in August 2023 you said: “If Putin is gone, the war will end the next day”. Do you still believe that today?
Naturally. Apart from Putin and a few crazy people around him, no one needs this war. The vast majority of Putin’s elite dream of him ending. And what’s more important: most Russians dream about it. A telephone survey we conducted in December carried out has shown that 65 percent of Russians would support a decision to end the war. And only 18 percent would be against or somewhat against it. People don’t care who owns Crimea and Donbass, as long as the war ends.
Apparently Putin has no intention of ending the war. What steps could be taken to remove him from power as quickly as possible?
First of all, stop living in a fantasy world. We have to face the reality: Putin is still strong. Experience shows that such military dictatorships can last for a very long time, often until the death of their creator. We have always said that salvation will not come from outside. The only thing that can bring liberation is a fundamental tectonic shift within the country. A protest, a change in mood in the country. It takes time and long, patient work to get to that point. Something that many people find uncomfortable. Unfortunately, there is no magic pill that will quickly change everything.
They said many Russians were in favor of ending the war. Do you also see this trend in the army?
Recently, the official number of criminal cases for desertion exceeded 6,000. And that’s just the tip of the iceberg. In most cases, no proceedings are initiated: Since commanders of deserters are punished harshly, they usually turn a blind eye and do not report the cases. The actual number of deserters is in the tens of thousands. We as politicians are obliged to find and support such tendencies: for example, the protest of the wives and mothers of soldiers, or generally of all people who ask Putin questions to which he does not provide answers.
What questions are they?
Society wants to know when the war will end, when the men will return from the front, and how Putin plans to fight poverty. Putin has no answers to these questions. To distract from real problems, the Kremlin is trying to push a new, completely fake agenda. Do you want to talk about poverty? Then let’s talk about unisex toilets. Do you want to talk about when the mobilized people who have been rotting at the front for 16 months will return? No, let’s talk about the abortion ban. Even his supporters realize that they have concerns that Putin is not interested in. Instead he tells them some crap about banning the rainbow flag. And they think: “Go to hell with your rainbow! When will the pensions be raised?” This is where an important, big gap is emerging between Putin and the voters. And we try to make maximum use of this gap.
Russian society is now more willing than ever to talk about politics and the future. Even the utterly rigged and predictable election is a moment when people are thinking about what we want our country to look like in the next six years. And accordingly, this is a very important moment to show them that Putin has no answers to their questions.
They are calling on their supporters to come to the polling stations at 12 p.m. sharp on election day. What do you expect from this campaign?
We expect Russians to see each other. The result of the election has long been known. Voting doesn’t make sense because it’s not a choice. It’s a PR move for Putin. It is very important for him to show the population and the West: the country is united, everyone supports me. You are not at war with me, you are at war with all of Russia. We, on the other hand, are trying to explain that Putin is not synonymous with Russia, that there is no support for war in society. And that’s why the purpose of this action is to show people that they are not alone, that there are many of them.
But the opposition has no leader. Don’t you think Alexei Navalny’s return to Russia was a mistake?
The opposition has a leader, his name is Alexei Navalny, and we see his leadership. Even in almost complete isolation, he formulates and spreads political ideas that find millions of supporters. Everyone sees how they are tortured, what risks they take, how they suffer. And the fact that he continues his fight under these conditions is a source of energy for a lot of people. You can talk about whether an action was a mistake if there are different possible actions. There were no such options for Navalny. He always knew that he would return to Russia. He is a Russian politician who did nothing illegal or wrong, who always wanted to be with his people.
War weariness is growing in the West. What would you say to people in Germany why it is necessary to continue supporting Ukraine?
First, it is a simple moral choice. It is clear where the good is and where the evil is. Putin is a major threat to the entire civilized world. But of course there are also purely practical considerations. We know from history that it is impossible to appease a dictator. The appetite comes while eating. Every attempt with one fails Negotiating with a person who is willing to negotiate only leads to greater difficulties. People who claim that you can negotiate anything with Putin are either idiots or they are being paid by him.
Do I understand correctly, you believe that Putin will attack Europe if he wins in Ukraine?
Sure, he’ll come up with something new.
But why? The EU and NATO are obviously much stronger opponents than Ukraine.
Putin is a sick man. He is mentally disturbed. As early as 2014, after the annexation of Crimea, Angela Merkel said in a conversation with Barack Obama that “Putin has lost touch with reality.” A correct diagnosis, but a diagnosis without treatment is worthless. For another eight years, the world accepted the fact that the largest country, a member of all international organizations such as the G20 or the UN Security Council, was led by a person who had “lost touch with reality.” The main thing is that oil and gas continue to flow. After the annexation of Crimea, Boris Nemtsov formulated Merkel’s idea a little differently: “He’s fucking stupid.” How it ended for Nemtsov is known. The West also reacted calmly to his murder. The diagnosis has been known for ten years – we all know he’s fucking stupid. We don’t know what else he’ll come up with. He must be fought and he must be destroyed.
Uladzimir Zhyhachou spoke to Leonid Volkov.