More than a year and a half after the highly contested presidential election in August 2020, Belarusians will vote again in February. It will not be a question of electing a new president, as the opposition is clamoring for, but of validating a new Constitution by referendum. A provisional version of the text was unveiled on Monday. As expected, it should only consolidate the power of Alexander Lukashenko, irremovable autocrat, still not tired of power after six consecutive terms since 1994.
To preserve appearances and appease a country plagued by a major protest movement severely repressed, the new Constitution provides for the creation of a new pole of power. The Belarusian People’s Assembly should become a parallel structure to Parliament, able to compete with the presidency. Until now, this assembly, at best consultative, at worst decorative, has met every five years, to examine the results of the completed five-year plan and the objectives of the next. It should now sit at least once a year and rule on much more important subjects, such as the calling of referendums, the amendment of laws or the appointment of judges of the Supreme and Constitutional Courts and that of members of the electoral commission. With a simple majority, it could even remove a president from office.
Guarantee a comfortable retirement
Despite appearances, the goal is not to oppose a counter-power to that of Lukashenko but rather to offer him a comfortable way out which will allow him to keep control of the country. The draft Constitution specifies that the presidents will be ex officio members of the Assembly of the Belarusian People and that they may be elected as its head. “This means that Lukashenko will most certainly seize the post. The only question is when. According to his plan, if a new president becomes a threat to him, he can easily get rid of him ”, says Tadeusz Giczan, journalist and doctoral student at University College London on Twitter. To ensure a comfortable retirement for Lukashenko, the text also grants immunity to former presidents, who cannot be prosecuted for acts committed when they were at the head of the country.
It has not been specified how the other 1,200 members of the institution will be appointed or elected, but in its current version, the Belarusian People’s Assembly offers a very Soviet representation of social strata rather than democratic representation. There are collective farm workers and workers in state factories as members of the power vertical, who have been chosen rather than elected. The new assembly should operate on the same model, with representatives of the “civil society” and local authorities, to become “The supreme organ of popular power”.
New source of legitimacy
At the same time, the new Constitution should reduce the powers of the President at the end of a transition period which could last two years, the time for Lukashenko to operate his reconversion. The next president can only be elected for a maximum of two terms (a measure that will not prevent Lukashenko from running if he wishes, since the counters will be reset) and his decrees will not supplant the laws, as it is. is currently the case. To be a candidate, you must be at least 40 years old and not have resided abroad during the twenty years preceding the date of the vote. Or a measure which automatically excludes all the opposition in exile.
Its leader, Svetlana Tikhanovskaïa, denounced a reform which “Will let the dictator secure his power, control the situation thanks to this artificial Belarusian People’s Assembly and escape prosecution.” “A new presidential election is the only solution to this crisis”, she repeated. Even if Alexander Lukashenko risked it, he could still win. According to an opinion poll published during the summer by Chatham House, the autocrat is seen as the best possible president by 23% of Belarusians.
But the new Constitution, insisted on by the Russian godfather of power, offers him a more stable position. “Electoral legitimation is too volatile in times of crisis. The Assembly makes it possible to find a new source of legitimacy, which is a major change ”, Twitter analysis Maryia Rohava, doctoral student at the University of Oslo. In the end, the referendum which will be held in February will leave the Belarusians a choice which is not one, between a Lukashenko President of the Republic and a Lukashenko President of the People’s Assembly. Even before having started, this ballot therefore respects the basic rule of Belarusian elections since 1994: in the end, it is always Lukashenko who wins.