A political turning point is imminent in South Africa. The former party of anti-apartheid icon Nelson Mandela ruled alone for exactly three decades. Now it has lost its absolute majority by a landslide. Two parties in particular are now being considered as coalition partners.
It is almost certain: South Africa’s ruling party, the African National Congress (ANC), has lost its absolute majority in the parliamentary elections. After 97.51 percent of the votes had been counted, the ANC was at 40.11 percent in the morning, the National Electoral Commission (IEC) announced. The preliminary partial result shows a massive loss of power. In the 2019 parliamentary elections, the ruling party had received 57.5 percent of the votes.
For the party of former anti-apartheid fighter Nelson Mandela, this means more than just a massive electoral debacle. For the first time in the country’s 30-year democratic history, the ANC will no longer govern alone. For the first time, it will have to form a coalition and make political compromises. In the past 30 years, since the beginning of democracy in 1994, the ANC has always won an absolute majority and governed the continent’s strongest economy alone.
The question now is: with whom?
The time for the coalition formation that is now necessary is short: within 14 days of the official announcement of the election results by the IEC, the 400 newly elected parliamentarians must form a government and elect a president. According to political commentators, two parties are mainly possible as coalition partners: the economically liberal Democratic Alliance (DA) and the Marxist-influenced Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF).
According to the preliminary partial results, the DA is at 21.71 percent. The party is ideologically far removed from the ANC, but has already proven itself at the provincial level: it has governed the Western Cape province, where the tourist metropolis of Cape Town is located, since 2009.
The other likely option for a coalition, according to analysts, is a merger of the ANC with the Marxist-influenced Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) party. The party advocates large-scale expropriation without compensation and nationalization and is at 9.37 percent according to the preliminary partial results. Since the EFF is led by the former chairman of the ANC youth association, Julius Malema, the ANC and EFF are relatively close politically.
Only six months ago, former President Jacob Zuma founded a party. The uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) is at 14.84 percent. However, Zuma himself was excluded from the election last week by the Constitutional Court in Johannesburg.
Great interest from German companies
Aleix Montana, political analyst at risk consulting firm Verisk Maplecroft, believes a coalition between the ANC and DA is likely despite different ideologies. Such an alliance would be welcomed by Western partners and foreign investors, said Montana.
German companies interested in the South African market are torn between hope and concern, said Christoph Kannengießer, CEO of the Africa Association. “A loss of the ANC majority can mean opportunities, but also risks for German companies,” said Kannengießer, depending on which coalition partner the ANC chooses.
A coalition with the EFF would scare off investors – not a good sign for South Africa’s stagnating economy and mass unemployment, warned analyst Montana. In addition, previous coalitions between the ANC and the EFF at the local level had proven unstable.
Andreas Freytag, professor of economic policy at the University of Jena and honorary professor at the South African University of Stellenbosch, also describes a possible ANC-EFF coalition as “poison for the country’s urgently needed economic development”.
Possible reasons for the change
Political commentators also attribute the ANC’s historic loss of power to the founding of the uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party, which was founded by Zuma just six months ago and received 14.8 percent of the vote. However, due to internal disputes, a coalition with the MK is considered unlikely.
The ANC can therefore also attribute its losses to its weak government record. The 61 million inhabitants of the country at the southern tip of Africa have much to complain about: an ailing economy, mass unemployment, ailing state-owned companies, regular power cuts, high crime rates and widespread corruption.
Cyril Ramaphosa does not want to resign
The ANC remained silent on Saturday morning. The previous day, the deputy ANC secretary general, Momvula Mikonyane, had only assured in a brief press briefing that President Cyril Ramaphosa would not resign. However, it is now unclear whether Ramaphosa will be re-elected by parliament for a fifth term as head of state. The 71-year-old was once considered a beacon of hope for the rainbow nation. In 2018, he ousted Zuma, who had systematically exploited the state for many years. Today, however, Ramaphosa is accused of having been largely incapable of taking action during his six-year term in office due to intra-party power games.
DA leader John Steenhuisen described the result of the parliamentary election as a “win for South Africa’s democracy”, even though the formation of a government is still open. “In order to save South Africa, the ANC’s absolute majority had to be broken, and we have achieved that,” said Steenhuisen.
South Africa is considered the “Gateway to Africa”
Members of 52 parties competed for the 400 seats in the national parliament in the election on May 29. After the results are announced, the newly elected parliament must form a government and elect a president within 14 days. Provincial governments were also newly elected.
The elections are also relevant for Germany and Europe. South Africa is the continent’s strongest economy. Politically and economically it is considered the “gateway to Africa”, a country with access to a continent that is becoming increasingly important internationally due to its raw material reserves needed for the energy transition. South Africa is also the only African member of the group of major economies (G20).
Although South Africa has good relations with Western countries, the government is closely linked to Russia and China. In the Gaza war, South Africa has a strong pro-Palestinian position. It has filed a complaint against Israel before the International Court of Justice for genocide in the Gaza Strip.