New impetus for offenses?
Moscow is probably moving elite units to eastern Ukraine
May 2, 2024, 7:25 p.m
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In eastern Ukraine, Russian troops are advancing on several sectors of the front. According to the US think tank ISW, Moscow could now increase the attacks by bringing in airborne troops. Such a regrouping poses a serious danger to Kiev’s armed forces, the experts said.
The Russian military is reportedly moving elements of two airborne divisions from southern Ukraine to the eastern front to bolster its offensive efforts in the area. This is reported by the US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW), citing Russian and Ukrainian sources. Accordingly, parts of the elite formations of the 76th Guards Air Assault Division and the 7th Guards Mountain Air Assault Division, which were stationed last summer during the Ukrainian counteroffensive near the village of Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia region, are to move to other sections of the front.
It is currently unclear which elements are involved and to which areas the units should be relocated, according to the ISW’s current management report. For example, Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets said that Moscow’s military planners had decided to send at least one battalion of the 76th Division from the Orikhiv area in the Zaporizhia region to the Luhansk region. A Russian military blogger, in turn, claimed that elements of the 76th and 7th divisions will be moved from the left bank of the Dnipro in the Kherson region and the western part of the Zaporizhzhia region to other directions.
According to the ISW, Russia moved elements of the 76th and 7th divisions from the Lyman and Kherson areas to the Robotyne area last summer. The regrouping came at a critical time and prevented Kiev’s forces from breaking through Russian defenses in the area. The counterattacks carried out at that time showed that the units of the 76th and 7th Divisions “were relatively more combat capable than other Russian units at that point in time.” In the past few weeks, Moscow has managed to conquer most of Robotyne. The Russian military leadership may have decided that elements of the 76th and 7th divisions would be more useful elsewhere, the US experts said.
Moscow could now try to relocate units of the two airborne divisions to Donbass in order to exploit the current weakness of Ukrainian troops before US military aid reaches the front on a large scale, analyzes the ISW. Russia is currently trying to exploit a tactical breakthrough at Ocheretyne, north of Avdiivka. Kremlin troops are also advancing on the city of Chasiv Yar.
The ISW says it will continue to monitor reports of possible relocations of parts of the 76th and 7th Airborne Divisions, as such regrouping poses a significant risk to Ukraine’s ability to slow ongoing Russian offensive operations in the coming weeks.