AI shouldn’t destroy that many jobs © Shutterstock
In recent months, there have been fears linked to the rise of artificial intelligence, ChatGPT chatbot in mind. Everyone had their own little prediction about the consequences that such technology would have on our daily lives… often auguring a bloodbath in the labor market. A report from the International Labor Organization published on Monday August 21 is much more optimistic about our professional future in the context of the emergence of AI.
This paper indeed suggests that most jobs and industries are only partially exposed to automation, and are therefore more likely to be supplemented than replaced by the latest wave of generative AI. “Therefore, the most significant impact of this technology is unlikely to be job destruction, but rather potential changes in job quality, including work intensity and autonomy.“, we read.
Administrative and clerical work is undoubtedly at the forefront, with almost a quarter of tasks considered to be highly exposed to AI and more than half of tasks having a medium level of exposure. For executives, only a small part of the tasks is considered to be very exposed, while around a quarter of them present an average level of exposure (see table below).
The professions most exposed to AI © International Labor Organization
Also according to this study, 5.5% of total employment in high-income countries is potentially exposed to the effects of automation of technology, while in low-income countries the risk of automation concerns only approximately 0.4% of posts. On the other hand, “the potential for increase is virtually the same in all countries, suggesting that with the right policies in place, this new wave of technological transformation could offer significant benefits to developing countries“.
Unequal before AI
The study also reveals that the potential effects of generative AI differ by gender. The share of female employment at risk of being affected by automation is more than twice as high. This is due to the overrepresentation of women in clerical jobs, especially in high- and middle-income countries.
The socio-economic impacts of generative AI will largely depend on how its dissemination is managed. “With the right policies in place, this new wave of technological transformation could deliver significant benefits to developing countries.“, writes the ILO. The authors of the study conclude by calling for policies to be put in place to support a change “orderly, fair and consultative“, and to use common sense. Ah! these researchers…