Sunday, September 26th 2021
No clear poll trend
Germany goes into exciting election day
Election campaign was yesterday, now it is election day. Around 60.4 million Germans are called today to elect a new Bundestag. In recent polls, the SPD is slightly ahead of the Union, but the election result is largely open.
After months of electoral campaigns, the day of the decision has arrived: a new Bundestag will be elected on this Sunday. According to recent polls, it could be a very close race. Around 60.4 million citizens are called upon to cast their first and second votes by 6 p.m. and thus decide on the composition of parliament. Around 2.8 million people are taking part in a federal election for the first time. 47 parties stand for election.
In parallel to the federal election, a new state parliament is elected in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and the House of Representatives in the state of Berlin. Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier called for voting before the polling stations opened at 8 a.m. “Every vote counts – your vote counts. So I ask you: Vote today!” Wrote Steinmeier in a guest post for “Bild am Sonntag”. Democracy lives from interfering and participating. “Those who take part are heard. Those who don’t vote let others decide for themselves,” said Steinmeier.
The Union and its candidate for Chancellor Armin Laschet were under immense pressure before the election. Chancellor Angela Merkel will no longer run after 16 years in office. In view of the large number of undecided voters, the outcome of the election is considered open. It seems likely, however, that Germany will be governed by a three-party alliance in the future. According to the surveys, various three-party alliances are currently possible, in addition to a traffic light coalition of the SPD, the Greens and the FDP, an alliance of the SPD, the Greens and the Left, as well as a CDU-led coalition with the Greens and the FDP.
High postal voter rate
In the opinion polls for the federal election, the Union was recently slightly behind the SPD with Chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz. The SPD came to 25 to 26 percent, the Union to 22 to 25. In third place were the Greens with 16 to 17 percent. It is followed by the FDP (10.5 to 12 percent), AfD (10) and Left (5 to 6). However, opinion polls are only snapshots of the political mood and say nothing about the election result. This applies even more to this election because of the high number of still undecided voters.
From the federal election in 2017, the CDU and CSU emerged as the strongest force with 32.9 percent. The SPD came to 20.5 percent, the AfD was the third strongest force with 12.6 percent. It was followed by the FDP (10.7 percent), the Left (9.2) and the Greens with 8.9 percent. It is expected that this time, more people than ever before will cast their votes by postal vote. According to the Federal Returning Office, it could be at least 40 percent. In 2017, 28.6 percent of those eligible to vote already made use of postal votes. The turnout four years ago was 76.2 percent.
It is also considered likely that the next Bundestag will be significantly larger again. Parliament currently has 709 members, making it bigger than ever before. The standard size of the Bundestag is 598 MPs – 299 MPs directly elected in the constituencies with the first vote and 299 MPs recruited via the state lists. However, this number is increasing due to overhang and compensation mandates.