No decisive progress?
London: Russians only pretend troop dynamics
01/27/2023 11:38 am
The British Ministry of Defense assumes that Russia is glossing over military successes with a targeted disinformation campaign. London does not see any signs of decisive progress in the Zaporizhia region. Nevertheless, a major offensive could be imminent.
According to British intelligence services, Moscow could deliberately spread misinformation about the progress of its own troops in Ukraine. In recent days, Russian online commentators have reported significant breaches by Ukraine’s defense lines in the Zaporizhia region and near the city of Wuhledar in the Donbass region, the British Ministry of Defense tweeted in its daily briefing.
In fact, Russian troops are said to have carried out local reconnaissance attacks in these places, but made no decisive progress, sources in London said. The Russians may have wanted to give the impression that their advance was gaining momentum.
The British Ministry of Defense has published daily information on the course of the war since the beginning of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, citing intelligence information. In doing so, the British government wants to both counter the Russian portrayal and keep allies in line. For its part, Moscow accuses London of a disinformation campaign.
Is a major offensive in Luhansk imminent?
On Thursday, experts at the US Institute for War Studies (ISW) concluded that a major offensive in the Luhansk region could be imminent in view of Russia’s strategic deployment of various armed forces. The presence of conventional forces along the front there, as well as the fact that only limited attacks are taking place on fronts in other areas, suggest that Russian forces are preparing for a “decisive effort” in Luhansk, the Washington-based think tank said in a statement Report from Wednesday (local time).
A number of intelligence statements support this assessment. The isolated attacks elsewhere served to distract and disperse the Ukrainian forces. The US institute described an attack along the axis between the towns of Swatowe and Kreminna as the most likely course of the Russian offensive. This attack was therefore supposed to advance through the major logistics centers of the cities of Luhansk and Starobilsk to the border of the administrative region, where it would eventually conquer the parts of the oblast that are still under Ukrainian control.
Russia may be hoping to launch further attacks into the Kharkiv region from the Swatove-Kreminna line and recapture critical terrain north of Donetsk. “However, it is extremely unlikely that Russian forces will be able to gain significant ground on this axis, even if they launch a successful attack in this sector,” the report said.